Lyon 0-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lyon vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Groupama Stadium plays host to Lyon versus Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 20:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lyon have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's home record at Groupama Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Toulouse (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Lyon have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Toulouse managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Lyon winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lyon and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 55% versus Toulouse 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 59% | Toulouse 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.35 xG and Toulouse 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.056 / defence 0.933 | Toulouse attack 0.883 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.324. Data: 51 Lyon games / 51 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 41% | Draw 30% | Toulouse 29%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Toulouse 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Lyon 60% | Toulouse 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 41% | Draw 30% | Toulouse 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Lyon 1.35 / Toulouse 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.056 / def 0.933 | Toulouse attack 0.883 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Lyon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Toulouse xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Toulouse kick off?
Lyon vs Toulouse kicked off at 20:05 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Toulouse?
Lyon 0 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Lyon vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Toulouse part of?
Lyon vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 41% chance of winning, Toulouse a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lyon and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Toulouse?
Record (5 meetings): Lyon 4W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 0W.
What form are Lyon and Toulouse in?
Lyon (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Toulouse (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lyon's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.88x) against Lyon's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.32
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.44
1.09
Toulouse xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
7%
13.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lyon and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lyon and 1.09 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Lyon have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 24W 9D 18L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse's form line: 18W 13D 20L from 51 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Lyon against 1.31 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lyon have posted 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (12W 5D 8L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 11W 4D 10L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lyon are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.20 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 24W 9D 18L in their last 51 games (1.59 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 18W 13D 20L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Toulouse away?
Lyon's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.64 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Lyon or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Toulouse in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won 3-0 on 10 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Lyon
2
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Toulouse?
From 9 meetings on record, Lyon have won 5, Toulouse have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Toulouse 0-2 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Toulouse?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 56%, Toulouse 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lyon) and 52% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Toulouse in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lyon's recent matches and 44% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lyon vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lyon's recent games and 52% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Toulouse tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lyon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon and Toulouse finished level at 0-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.35 xG and Toulouse 1.09 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lyon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Toulouse landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.06 / defence 0.93 against Toulouse attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 41% | Draw 30% | Toulouse 29%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 59%, Toulouse 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Toulouse's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.59 PPG, Toulouse 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.