Lyon 1-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lyon face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lyon host Le Havre at Parc Olympique Lyonnais in Ligue 1 (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 14 December 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lyon stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Lyon at home: 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lyon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Le Havre have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Le Havre have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lyon at 1.20 PPG versus Le Havre's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Lyon have won 2, Le Havre 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Mar 2025, ended Lyon 4–2 Le Havre — a Lyon win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lyon trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Le Havre trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 55% versus Le Havre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 61% | Le Havre 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.92 xG and Le Havre 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.131 / defence 0.912 | Le Havre attack 0.823 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.156. Data: built from Lyon's last 49 games and Le Havre's last 49.
Result probabilities: Lyon 62% | Draw 22% | Le Havre 16%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.61 | Draw 4.65 | Le Havre 6.12. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lyon's last 10 home games and Le Havre's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lyon 50% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 16 | Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais • Kick-off: Sunday 14 December 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 62% | Draw 22% | Le Havre 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Lyon 1.92 / Le Havre 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.131 / def 0.912 | Le Havre attack 0.823 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Lyon (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Le Havre xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lyon vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Lyon vs Le Havre kick off?
Lyon vs Le Havre kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Le Havre?
Lyon 1 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Lyon vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What competition is Lyon vs Le Havre part of?
Lyon vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 16) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 62% chance of winning, Le Havre a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lyon and Le Havre will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Lyon vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lyon's attack rating (1.13) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lyon's last 49 games and Le Havre's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.65
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.79
0.87
Le Havre xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
15%
6.85
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
2%
41.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lyon vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Lyon and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Lyon and 0.87 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon's recent record stands at 24W 9D 16L from 49 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 26L across 49 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lyon by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lyon have managed 16W 2D 6L from their last 24 home games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Lyon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Le Havre's away record stands at 8W 4D 12L across their last 24 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.08 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Lyon (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lyon
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Lyon vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Lyon and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 24W 9D 16L in their last 49 games (1.65 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 13W 10D 26L in their last 49 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Le Havre away?
Lyon's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.08 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Lyon or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Le Havre in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Oct 2024, when Lyon won Le Havre 0-4 Lyon.
Lyon's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Lyon
3
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Lyon vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Le Havre?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Lyon have won 3, Le Havre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Lyon 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Le Havre?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 54%, Le Havre 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lyon) and 50% (Le Havre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Le Havre in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lyon vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lyon and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lyon's recent matches and 54% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lyon and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lyon's matches and 50% of Le Havre's.
Do Lyon and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Lyon's recent matches and 58% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Le Havre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Le Havre 1-0 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.92 xG and Le Havre 0.87 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lyon fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Le Havre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.13 / defence 0.91 against Le Havre attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 62% | Draw 22% | Le Havre 16%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 61%, Le Havre 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Le Havre's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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