Lyon 3-3 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lyon vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lyon host Clermont Foot at Groupama Stadium in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lyon — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Lyon have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 0D 0L from 2 Ligue 1 matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Clermont Foot are 2.50 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.00 xG and Clermont Foot 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 0.935 / defence 1.087 | Clermont Foot attack 0.899 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.590. Data: 2 Lyon games / 2 Clermont Foot games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lyon 21% | Draw 33% | Clermont Foot 47%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | Clermont Foot 2.13. Clermont Foot hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 21% | Draw 33% | Clermont Foot 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Lyon 1.00 / Clermont Foot 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 0.935 / def 1.087 | Clermont Foot attack 0.899 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.590 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Clermont Foot xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Lyon vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Lyon 3 - 3 Clermont Foot.
Where is Lyon vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Clermont Foot part of?
Lyon vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 21% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lyon and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lyon and Clermont Foot in?
Lyon (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lyon's attack rating (0.94) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
21%
4.81
33%
3.06
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.56
1.56
Clermont Foot xG
4.81
21%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
4%
22.78
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Lyon and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Lyon and 1.56 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L. It's still early in the season for Lyon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.50 PPG clear of Lyon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Clermont Foot in 0%.
Defensively: Clermont Foot in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Lyon or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lyon's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lyon
1
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Lyon have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lyon's recent matches and 0% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lyon vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lyon's recent games and 0% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lyon and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Lyon and Clermont Foot drew 3-3 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.00 xG and Clermont Foot 1.56 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Clermont Foot outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Clermont Foot attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 21% | Draw 33% | Clermont Foot 47%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 50%, Clermont Foot 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Clermont Foot arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lyon scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Clermont Foot scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.