Lorient 1-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Nice at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lorient vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Lorient welcome Nice to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lorient stand at 2W 3D 1L from 6 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lorient have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nice have recorded 3W 2D 0L from 5 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 5 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nice are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Lorient trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Nice trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 60% versus Nice 20%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 60% | Nice 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.00 xG and Nice 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 0.959 / defence 0.974 | Nice attack 1.166 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.405. Data: 6 Lorient games / 5 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lorient 20% | Draw 32% | Nice 48%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Nice 2.08. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lorient 67% | Nice 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 20% | Draw 32% | Nice 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Lorient 1.00 / Nice 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 0.959 / def 0.974 | Nice attack 1.166 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Nice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Nice xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lorient vs Nice kick off?
Lorient vs Nice kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Nice?
Lorient 1 - 0 Nice.
Where is Lorient vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What competition is Lorient vs Nice part of?
Lorient vs Nice is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 20% chance of winning, Nice a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lorient and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Lorient vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Nice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lorient and Nice in?
Lorient (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Nice (all comps): 3W-2D-0L in 5 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lorient's attack rating (0.96) and Nice's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Lorient's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
20%
4.97
32%
3.11
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Lorient xG
Total xG
2.59
1.59
Nice xG
4.97
20%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
4%
24.47
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lorient and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Lorient and 1.59 for Nice, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lorient's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lorient, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 0L across 5 games — 2.20 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nice by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lorient heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Lorient are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 2.40 scored and 0.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lorient have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Nice in 20%.
Defensively: Lorient have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Nice in 80% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lorient and Nice in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Nice have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 (2.20 PPG).
Have Lorient or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lorient have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Nice in 80%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2024, when Nice won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lorient's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lorient
3
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Nice?
From 8 meetings on record, Lorient have won 2, Nice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lorient and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Nice 3-3 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 60%, Nice 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Lorient and 60% for Nice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lorient keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Nice in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lorient play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Lorient's recent matches and 20% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lorient vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lorient's matches and 60% of Nice's.
Do Lorient and Nice tend to score early?
Lorient have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Nice in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lorient defy the odds to beat Nice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lorient beat Nice 1-0 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.00 xG and Nice 1.59 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nice landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Nice attack 1.17 / defence 0.84, drawn from 6/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 20% | Draw 32% | Nice 48%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Lorient win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 60%, Nice 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nice's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.60. Form was overturned, with Lorient winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lorient conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Nice managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.