Lorient 0-0 Angers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lorient at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lorient vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir plays host to Lorient versus Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 5 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lorient have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lorient's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Lorient are significantly better at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir than their overall form suggests.
Angers's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 0W 0D 10L from 10 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Lorient's 0.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Angers's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Lorient 1W, Angers 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Lorient winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Lorient goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Angers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 61% versus Angers 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 54% | Angers 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.98 xG and Angers 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 1.041 / defence 1.037 | Angers attack 0.600 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.325. Angers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Lorient's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Lorient games / 59 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lorient 63% | Draw 24% | Angers 13%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Angers 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Lorient (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lorient as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lorient 80% | Angers 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 63% | Draw 24% | Angers 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Lorient 1.98 / Angers 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 1.041 / def 1.037 | Angers attack 0.600 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Lorient (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Angers xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lorient vs Angers kick off?
Lorient vs Angers kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Angers?
Lorient 0 - 0 Angers.
Where is Lorient vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What competition is Lorient vs Angers part of?
Lorient vs Angers is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 63% chance of winning, Angers a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lorient and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Lorient vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Angers?
Record (3 meetings): Lorient 1W | Draws 1 | Angers 1W.
What form are Lorient and Angers in?
Lorient (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Angers (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lorient's attack at 1.04x the league average against Angers's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.60x) against Lorient's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
63%
1.58
24%
4.25
13%
7.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Lorient xG
Total xG
2.81
0.82
Angers xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
7.47
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
14%
7.27
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
2%
54.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Lorient and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Lorient and 0.82 for Angers, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Angers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lorient's recent record stands at 18W 17D 24L from 59 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Angers, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 34L across 59 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Lorient against 0.83 for Angers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lorient have managed 11W 8D 10L from 29 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Angers's away record stands at 3W 10D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.66 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lorient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lorient are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.05 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lorient have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lorient and Angers in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 18W 17D 24L in their last 59 games (1.20 PPG), while Angers have gone 12W 13D 34L in their last 59 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Angers away?
Lorient's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 1.41 PPG; Angers away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lorient have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Angers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lorient
2
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Angers?
From 6 meetings on record, Lorient have won 2, Angers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lorient and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Lorient 2-0 Angers.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 59%, Angers 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lorient) and 45% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Lorient have failed to score in 28% of games; Angers in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lorient play Angers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lorient's games and 55% of Angers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lorient vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lorient's recent games and 45% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lorient and Angers tend to score early?
Lorient have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Angers in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lorient's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lorient and Angers finished level at 0-0 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.98 xG and Angers 0.82 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lorient fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Angers landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against Angers attack 0.60 / defence 1.32, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 63% | Draw 24% | Angers 13%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 54%, Angers 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Angers's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lorient 1.20 PPG, Angers 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.