Lille 1-0 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (60%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lille face Strasbourg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lille and Strasbourg meet at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1 (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Lille's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lille at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Lille are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Strasbourg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Strasbourg have posted 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Lille's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Lille, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Strasbourg — Strasbourg have 1 win, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2023, ended Lille 1–2 Strasbourg — a Strasbourg win.
The head-to-head data gives Lille an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Lille goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Strasbourg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 58% and Strasbourg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 48% | Strasbourg 54%). Note also that Strasbourg surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Lille recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.94 xG and Strasbourg 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.432 / defence 0.771 | Strasbourg attack 0.932 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.297. Lille carry an above-average attack rating of 1.432 — their 1.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Lille have a tight defence (rating 0.771), which is pulling Strasbourg's projected output down. Data: built from Lille's last 66 games and Strasbourg's last 67.
Result probabilities: Lille 60% | Draw 23% | Strasbourg 17%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.66 | Draw 4.32 | Strasbourg 5.96. The model has a clear lean to Lille (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lille's last 10 home games and Strasbourg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lille 50% (last 10 home games) | Strasbourg 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 30 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 60% | Draw 23% | Strasbourg 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Lille 1.94 / Strasbourg 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.432 / def 0.771 | Strasbourg attack 0.932 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Lille (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Strasbourg xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lille vs Strasbourg FAQs
What time does Lille vs Strasbourg kick off?
Lille vs Strasbourg kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Strasbourg?
Lille 1 - 0 Strasbourg.
Where is Lille vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Strasbourg part of?
Lille vs Strasbourg is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 30) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 60% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lille and Strasbourg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lille vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lille's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Strasbourg's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Strasbourg's attack (0.93x) against Lille's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Lille's last 66 games and Strasbourg's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.32
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Lille xG
Total xG
2.87
0.93
Strasbourg xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
14%
6.93
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
2%
41.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lille vs Strasbourg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Lille and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Lille and 0.93 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Strasbourg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lille's recent record stands at 32W 20D 14L from 66 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 18W 22D 26L across 66 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Strasbourg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lille have managed 23W 7D 3L from their last 33 home games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 7W 12D 14L across their last 33 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.26 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 67%.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Current Season
Strasbourg
Current Season
Lille (Home) vs Strasbourg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lille
Current Season
Strasbourg
Current Season
❓ Lille vs Strasbourg Form FAQs
What form are Lille and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 32W 20D 14L in their last 66 games (1.76 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 18W 22D 26L in their last 66 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Strasbourg away?
Lille's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.30 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lille or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 25 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Strasbourg have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won Strasbourg 0-3 Lille on 14 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Strasbourg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lille
1
Draws
4
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Lille vs Strasbourg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Strasbourg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lille have won 5, Strasbourg have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lille and Strasbourg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2026: Lille 1-4 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Strasbourg?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Lille, 70% for Strasbourg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Lille) and 54% (Strasbourg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lille vs Strasbourg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lille and Strasbourg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lille's games and 70% of Strasbourg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lille and Strasbourg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Lille's matches and 54% of Strasbourg's.
Do Lille and Strasbourg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Lille's recent matches and 88% of Strasbourg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Strasbourg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Strasbourg 1-0 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.94 xG and Strasbourg 0.93 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lille fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Strasbourg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.43 / defence 0.77 against Strasbourg attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 60% | Draw 23% | Strasbourg 17%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 48%, Strasbourg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Strasbourg's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Lille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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