Lens 3-4 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lens at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lens vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Le Havre travel to Stade Bollaert-Delelis to take on Lens in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lens — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Lens have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Le Havre stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Le Havre's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lens are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Lens have won 1, Le Havre 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 12 Jan 2025, ended Lens 2–1 Le Havre — a Lens win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lens in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Le Havre in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lens 44% versus Le Havre 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lens 39% | Le Havre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lens 1.20 xG and Le Havre 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lens attack 0.747 / defence 0.927 | Le Havre attack 0.902 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.350. Lens's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Data: built from Lens's last 57 games and Le Havre's last 57.
Result probabilities: Lens 36% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 32%. Fair-value odds: Lens 2.80 | Draw 3.12 | Le Havre 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lens are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lens 30% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lens vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lens 36% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Lens 1.20 / Le Havre 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Lens attack 0.747 / def 0.927 | Le Havre attack 0.902 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Lens (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Lens xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Le Havre xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lens vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Lens vs Le Havre kick off?
Lens vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What was the final score in Lens vs Le Havre?
Lens 3 - 4 Le Havre.
Where is Lens vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What competition is Lens vs Le Havre part of?
Lens vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lens vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lens a 36% chance of winning, Le Havre a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lens and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Lens vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lens's attack rating (0.75) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Lens's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lens's last 57 games and Le Havre's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
36%
2.80
32%
3.12
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Lens xG
Total xG
2.32
1.13
Le Havre xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lens vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lens vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lens and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Lens and 1.13 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Lens vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lens come into this having played 57 games, going 23W 15D 19L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 0.86 PPG from 57 outings (12W 13D 32L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Lens carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lens's home form reads 13W 6D 9L across their last 28 home games, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 28 away games (4W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lens are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.93 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Lens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lens
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Lens (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lens
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Lens vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Lens and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lens have gone 23W 15D 19L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 12W 13D 32L in their last 57 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lens at home or Le Havre away?
Lens's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lens at home: 1.61 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Lens or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Le Havre in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 30 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lens have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Lens's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lens
2
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Lens vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Le Havre?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lens have won 3, Le Havre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lens and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 January 2026: Lens 1-0 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Lens and Le Havre?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lens 43%, Le Havre 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Lens) and 46% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Lens keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Le Havre in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lens home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lens vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lens and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Lens's recent matches and 54% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lens and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Lens's recent games and 46% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lens and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Lens's recent matches and 61% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Lens 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Lens 3-4 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 1.20 xG and Le Havre 1.13 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Lens beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 0.75 / defence 0.93 against Le Havre attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lens 36% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 32%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 39%, Le Havre 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lens's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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