Le Havre 0-3 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Le Havre face Reims.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 1 (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Le Havre have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Reims's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Reims away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Le Havre, 2 for Reims and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2024, ended Le Havre 1–2 Reims — a Reims win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Reims — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 43% versus Reims 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 50% | Reims 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.15 xG and Reims 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.750 / defence 1.235 | Reims attack 0.959 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.407. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Le Havre's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reims's projected output up. Data: built from Le Havre's last 44 games and Reims's last 44.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 25% | Draw 26% | Reims 49%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.96 | Draw 3.83 | Reims 2.06. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Le Havre's last 10 home games and Reims's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Le Havre 40% (last 10 home games) | Reims 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 25% | Draw 26% | Reims 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Le Havre 1.15 / Reims 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.750 / def 1.235 | Reims attack 0.959 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Reims (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Reims xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Reims FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Reims kick off?
Le Havre vs Reims kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Reims?
Le Havre 0 - 3 Reims.
Where is Le Havre vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Reims part of?
Le Havre vs Reims is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 11) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 25% chance of winning, Reims a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Le Havre and Reims will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Le Havre vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.75x the league average against Reims's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reims's attack (0.96x) against Le Havre's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 44 games and Reims's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
25%
3.96
26%
3.83
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.81
1.67
Reims xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
5%
20.93
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Reims Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.67 for Reims, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Le Havre have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 10W 11D 23L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Reims's form line: 17W 10D 17L from 44 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Reims are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.18 PPG from their last 22 home games (8W 2D 12L).
On the road, Reims have gone 7W 6D 9L from their last 22 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.32 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims in 68%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Reims
Blended
Le Havre (Home) vs Reims (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Le Havre vs Reims Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Reims in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 10W 11D 23L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while Reims have gone 17W 10D 17L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.18 PPG; Reims away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Le Havre and Reims, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reims won Le Havre 0-3 Reims on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Le Havre
1
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Reims H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Reims?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 0, Reims have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Reims last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 January 2025: Reims 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 41%, Reims 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Le Havre and 68% for Reims. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Reims Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Reims matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Le Havre's games and 82% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Le Havre and Reims matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Le Havre's matches and 68% of Reims's.
Do Le Havre and Reims matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Le Havre's recent matches and 68% of Reims's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Reims run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Le Havre 0-3 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.15 xG and Reims 1.67 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Reims outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.75 / defence 1.24 against Reims attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 25% | Draw 26% | Reims 49%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 50%, Reims 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reims's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Reims arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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