Le Havre 1-0 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Le Havre welcome Montpellier to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Montpellier have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Le Havre) versus 0.50 (Montpellier). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Le Havre, 1 for Montpellier and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Montpellier winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Le Havre in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Montpellier in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 44% versus Montpellier 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 51% | Montpellier 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.86 xG and Montpellier 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.820 / defence 1.421 | Montpellier attack 0.920 / defence 1.492. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.371. Montpellier bring a strong defensive rating of 1.492 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Le Havre games / 43 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 39% | Draw 24% | Montpellier 37%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Montpellier 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 40% | Montpellier 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 39% | Draw 24% | Montpellier 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Le Havre 1.86 / Montpellier 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.820 / def 1.421 | Montpellier attack 0.920 / def 1.492 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Montpellier xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Montpellier kick off?
Le Havre vs Montpellier kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Montpellier?
Le Havre 1 - 0 Montpellier.
Where is Le Havre vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Montpellier part of?
Le Havre vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 39% chance of winning, Montpellier a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Le Havre and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Montpellier?
Record (2 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Montpellier in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Montpellier (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Le Havre vs Montpellier?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
39%
2.54
24%
4.20
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Le Havre xG
Total xG
3.65
1.79
Montpellier xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.50
Clean Sheet
17%
6.01
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
7%
15.25
6%
17.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.79 for Montpellier, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Le Havre have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 9W 11D 23L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Montpellier's form line: 11W 13D 19L from 43 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 0.88 PPG, Montpellier on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (7W 2D 12L).
On the road, Montpellier have gone 7W 3D 11L from 21 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.19 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 9W 11D 23L in their last 43 games (0.88 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 11W 13D 19L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Montpellier away?
Montpellier's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.10 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Le Havre have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Le Havre's record when hosting Montpellier specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Le Havre
1
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Montpellier?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, Montpellier have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Montpellier 0-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Montpellier?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 43%, Montpellier 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Le Havre and 67% for Montpellier. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 48% of games; Montpellier in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Le Havre's recent matches and 52% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Le Havre's matches and 67% of Montpellier's.
Do Le Havre and Montpellier tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Montpellier 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Montpellier 1-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.86 xG and Montpellier 1.79 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Montpellier landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.82 / defence 1.42 against Montpellier attack 0.92 / defence 1.49, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 39% | Draw 24% | Montpellier 37%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 51%, Montpellier 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Montpellier's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 0.88 PPG, Montpellier 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.