Estac Troyes vs Toulouse – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 41%, yet in-form Estac Troyes provide a compelling counter-argument — this Estac Troyes vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Toulouse make the trip to to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Estac Troyes (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Toulouse have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Estac Troyes's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Estac Troyes lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2023, ended 1–4 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 51% versus Toulouse 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 54% | Toulouse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.12 xG and Toulouse 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.700 / defence 0.962 | Toulouse attack 1.097 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Estac Troyes games / 35 Toulouse games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 28% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 41%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Toulouse 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Estac Troyes (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 50% | Toulouse 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 28% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Estac Troyes 1.12 / Toulouse 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.700 / def 0.962 | Toulouse attack 1.097 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Toulouse xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Toulouse kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Toulouse is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Toulouse part of?
Estac Troyes vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 28% chance of winning, Toulouse a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Estac Troyes and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Toulouse?
Record (2 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 0 | Toulouse 2W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Toulouse in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (1.10x) against Estac Troyes's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
The sample (2/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
28%
3.62
31%
3.23
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.53
1.41
Toulouse xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
7%
14.84
14%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.41 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 20W 8D 7L from 35 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 14L across 35 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estac Troyes by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Toulouse heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 13W 2D 2L from 17 games — 2.41 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.94 PPG overall — Estac Troyes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Toulouse's away record stands at 6W 3D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.40 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 20W 8D 7L in their last 35 games (1.94 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Toulouse away?
Estac Troyes's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 2.41 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Toulouse in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
0
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Toulouse have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2023, when Toulouse 4-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 53%, Toulouse 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Estac Troyes) and 59% (Toulouse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Estac Troyes's games and 59% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Estac Troyes's matches and 59% of Toulouse's.
Do Estac Troyes and Toulouse tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.