Estac Troyes 2-2 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Estac Troyes take on Rennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Aube plays host to Estac Troyes versus Rennes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estac Troyes have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rennes (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 1W 2D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rennes are 0.50 PPG clear of Estac Troyes in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Rennes half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 64% versus Rennes 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estac Troyes 36% | Rennes 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.10 xG and Rennes 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.827 / defence 1.052 | Rennes attack 0.792 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.206. Data: 11 Estac Troyes games / 11 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 34% | Draw 38% | Rennes 28%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.94 | Draw 2.63 | Rennes 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Estac Troyes 80% | Rennes 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 34% | Draw 38% | Rennes 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Estac Troyes 1.10 / Rennes 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.827 / def 1.052 | Rennes attack 0.792 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Rennes xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Rennes kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Rennes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Rennes?
Estac Troyes 2 - 2 Rennes.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Rennes part of?
Estac Troyes vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 34% chance of winning, Rennes a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Estac Troyes and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Rennes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estac Troyes and Rennes in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Rennes (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Rennes's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Rennes's attack (0.79x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.97
38%
2.64
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.11
1.00
Rennes xG
2.97
34%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.00 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estac Troyes come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 3D 5L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Estac Troyes's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Attack vs Defence
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.45 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Rennes in 27%.
Defensively: Rennes in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Rennes in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Rennes have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Rennes away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.00 PPG; Rennes away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Rennes in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rennes won 4-0 on 14 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
2
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Rennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Rennes have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when Rennes 4-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rennes tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 80%, Rennes 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Estac Troyes and 20% for Rennes.
On the defensive side: Rennes in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Rennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Estac Troyes's games and 40% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 20% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Rennes tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rennes in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes and Rennes share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 12, as Estac Troyes and Rennes drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.10 xG and Rennes 1.00 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rennes outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Rennes attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 34% | Draw 38% | Rennes 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 36%, Rennes 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Rennes's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.