Clermont Foot 2-1 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Rennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Clermont Foot welcome Rennes to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 January 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Clermont Foot are significantly better at Stade Gabriel Montpied than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Rennes's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Clermont Foot, 1 for Rennes and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 0–6 with Rennes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rennes in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 43% versus Rennes 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Rennes 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.89 xG and Rennes 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.762 / defence 1.176 | Rennes attack 1.000 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.201. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Clermont Foot games / 21 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 23% | Draw 29% | Rennes 48%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Rennes 2.08. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 50% | Rennes 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 23% | Draw 29% | Rennes 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Clermont Foot 0.89 / Rennes 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.762 / def 1.176 | Rennes attack 1.000 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Rennes (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Rennes xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Rennes kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Rennes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Clermont Foot 2 - 1 Rennes.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Rennes part of?
Clermont Foot vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 23% chance of winning, Rennes a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Clermont Foot and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Rennes?
Record (1 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 0 | Rennes 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Rennes in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Rennes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.76) and Rennes's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
23%
4.44
29%
3.40
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.30
1.41
Rennes xG
4.44
23%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
5%
18.20
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 14.2 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.41 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Clermont Foot come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 6D 11L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Clermont Foot's home form reads 2W 4D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.90 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Rennes in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Rennes in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 4W 6D 11L in their last 21 games (0.86 PPG), while Rennes have gone 10W 4D 7L in their last 21 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Rennes away?
Rennes's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.00 PPG; Rennes away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Rennes in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Rennes have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2021, when Rennes won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
4
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Rennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 2, Rennes have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Rennes 3-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Rennes see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 50%, Rennes 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Clermont Foot) and 40% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 30% of games; Rennes in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 40% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 40% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Rennes tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Rennes in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Rennes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Rennes 2-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.89 xG and Rennes 1.41 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Clermont Foot beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.76 / defence 1.18 against Rennes attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 23% | Draw 29% | Rennes 48%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Clermont Foot win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Rennes 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Rennes's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Rennes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.