Clermont Foot 1-2 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Clermont Foot welcome Nice to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 2W 2D 2L from 6 Ligue 1 appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Clermont Foot are significantly better at Stade Gabriel Montpied than their overall form suggests.
Nice — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nice have posted 4W 0D 2L from 6 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nice are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Nice in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 54% versus Nice 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 54% | Nice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.89 xG and Nice 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.784 / defence 1.172 | Nice attack 1.022 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.175. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Clermont Foot games / 13 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 21% | Draw 33% | Nice 46%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | Nice 2.17. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 50% | Nice 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 21% | Draw 33% | Nice 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Clermont Foot 0.89 / Nice 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.784 / def 1.172 | Nice attack 1.022 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Nice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Nice xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Nice kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Nice kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Clermont Foot 1 - 2 Nice.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Nice part of?
Clermont Foot vs Nice is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 21% chance of winning, Nice a 46% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Clermont Foot and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Nice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Nice in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.78) and Nice's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
21%
4.81
33%
3.03
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.29
1.41
Nice xG
4.81
21%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
5%
19.63
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.2 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.41 for Nice, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 4D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Clermont Foot's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 2.00 points per game from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.77 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Nice in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Nice in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Nice have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.33 PPG; Nice away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Nice in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Nice runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Nice specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
2
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Nice?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Nice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Nice 0-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Nice?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Clermont Foot 50% BTTS, Nice 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Clermont Foot) and 50% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nice in 50%; Nice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 17% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 50% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Nice tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nice in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Clermont Foot 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Clermont Foot 1-2 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.89 xG and Nice 1.41 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.78 / defence 1.17 against Nice attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 21% | Draw 33% | Nice 46%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 54%, Nice 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Nice's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.