Clermont Foot 2-4 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Monaco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monaco make the trip to Stade Gabriel-Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Clermont Foot haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel-Montpied: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Gabriel-Montpied this season.
Monaco have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Monaco haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Monaco have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Clermont Foot. A 1.40 PPG lead over Monaco (2.50 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Monaco have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Clermont Foot's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Monaco winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Monaco have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Monaco — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 55% versus Monaco 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 47% | Monaco 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.46 xG and Monaco 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.940 / defence 0.977 | Monaco attack 1.041 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.242. Data: 38 Clermont Foot games / 38 Monaco games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 30% | Monaco 31%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Monaco 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Monaco lead the H2H ledger, but Clermont Foot carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 40% | Monaco 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 30% | Monaco 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Clermont Foot 1.46 / Monaco 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.940 / def 0.977 | Monaco attack 1.041 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Monaco xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Monaco kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Monaco kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Monaco?
Clermont Foot 2 - 4 Monaco.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Monaco part of?
Clermont Foot vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 40% chance of winning, Monaco a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Clermont Foot and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Monaco?
Record (4 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 1 | Monaco 3W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Monaco in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Clermont Foot (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (1.04x) against Clermont Foot's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.36
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.72
1.26
Monaco xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.26 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Clermont Foot come into this having played 38 games, going 17W 8D 13L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. Clermont Foot haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Monaco sit at 1.71 PPG from 38 outings (19W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. Monaco haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.71 for Monaco. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Clermont Foot's home form reads 9W 3D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Monaco have taken 1.84 points per game from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.84 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Pre-Season
Monaco
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Monaco in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 17W 8D 13L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Monaco have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.58 PPG; Monaco away: 1.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Monaco have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 4-0 on 16 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
5
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Monaco?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Monaco have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Monaco 4-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 47%, Monaco 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Clermont Foot) and 58% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Monaco in 32%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 58% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 58% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Monaco tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Monaco in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Clermont Foot 2-4 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.46 xG and Monaco 1.26 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Monaco outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Monaco attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 30% | Monaco 31%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Monaco win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 47%, Monaco 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.55 PPG, Monaco 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.