Clermont Foot 1-3 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Gabriel Montpied to take on Clermont Foot. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stade Gabriel Montpied this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Clermont Foot) versus 0.90 (Estac Troyes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Estac Troyes in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Clermont Foot, 0 for Estac Troyes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Clermont Foot winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 47% versus Estac Troyes 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 49% | Estac Troyes 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.55 xG and Estac Troyes 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.899 / defence 1.017 | Estac Troyes attack 1.015 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.467. Data: 45 Clermont Foot games / 45 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 36%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Estac Troyes 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | Estac Troyes 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Clermont Foot 1.55 / Estac Troyes 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.899 / def 1.017 | Estac Troyes attack 1.015 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Estac Troyes xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Clermont Foot 1 - 3 Estac Troyes.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes part of?
Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 38% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes?
Record (2 meetings): Clermont Foot 2W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.90) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
38%
2.63
25%
3.93
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
3.07
1.51
Estac Troyes xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
8%
11.95
8%
12.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.51 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 12W 10D 23L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estac Troyes's form line: 11W 12D 22L from 45 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.02 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 5W 4D 13L from 22 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.07 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Estac Troyes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 12W 10D 23L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Estac Troyes away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.09 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes?
From 8 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 4, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 59%, Estac Troyes 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Clermont Foot) and 54% (Estac Troyes).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Clermont Foot's games and 64% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 54% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Clermont Foot 1-3 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.55 xG and Estac Troyes 1.51 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Estac Troyes outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against Estac Troyes attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 36%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Estac Troyes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 49%, Estac Troyes 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.02 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.