Bordeaux 3-2 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Bordeaux take on Reims.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Reims travel to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to take on Bordeaux. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Bordeaux have gone 0W 3D 2L this season (5 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bordeaux at 0.90 PPG versus Reims's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Bordeaux in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Reims in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bordeaux 73% and Reims 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 54% | Reims 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.03 xG and Reims 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.812 / defence 1.255 | Reims attack 0.718 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.206. Data: 11 Bordeaux games / 11 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 30% | Draw 38% | Reims 32%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 3.33 | Draw 2.63 | Reims 3.12. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Bordeaux 80% | Reims 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 30% | Draw 38% | Reims 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Bordeaux 1.03 / Reims 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.812 / def 1.255 | Reims attack 0.718 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Reims xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Reims kick off?
Bordeaux vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Reims?
Bordeaux 3 - 2 Reims.
Where is Bordeaux vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Reims part of?
Bordeaux vs Reims is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 30% chance of winning, Reims a 32% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bordeaux and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Reims?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Reims in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Reims (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bordeaux's attack rating (0.81) and Reims's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.36
38%
2.64
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.12
1.09
Reims xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.09 for Reims, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 1W 6D 4L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims's form line: 2W 5D 4L from 11 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 0.82 PPG, Reims on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L).
On the road, Reims have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.09 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Reims in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 1W 6D 4L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Reims have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.60 PPG; Reims away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
0
Draws
1
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Reims?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 1, Reims have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when Reims 5-0 Bordeaux.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bordeaux at 80%, Reims at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Bordeaux and 20% for Reims.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Bordeaux's games and 60% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Bordeaux's recent games and 20% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Reims tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Reims in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bordeaux defy the odds to beat Reims 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Reims 3-2 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.03 xG and Reims 1.09 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bordeaux beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Reims outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.81 / defence 1.25 against Reims attack 0.72 / defence 1.03, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 30% | Draw 38% | Reims 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bordeaux win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 54%, Reims 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 0.82 PPG, Reims 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.