Bordeaux 3-1 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bordeaux and Metz meet at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bordeaux have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bordeaux's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Metz's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Metz away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bordeaux, 0 for Metz and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bordeaux half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Metz half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 67% versus Metz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 63% | Metz 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.38 xG and Metz 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.890 / defence 1.503 | Metz attack 0.611 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.195. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Bordeaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Bordeaux games / 30 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 43% | Draw 27% | Metz 30%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Metz 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bordeaux 70% | Metz 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 43% | Draw 27% | Metz 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Bordeaux 1.38 / Metz 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.890 / def 1.503 | Metz attack 0.611 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Metz xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Metz kick off?
Bordeaux vs Metz kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Metz?
Bordeaux 3 - 1 Metz.
Where is Bordeaux vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Metz part of?
Bordeaux vs Metz is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 43% chance of winning, Metz a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bordeaux and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Metz?
Record (1 meetings): Bordeaux 0W | Draws 1 | Metz 0W.
What form are Bordeaux and Metz in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Metz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bordeaux's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.61x) against Bordeaux's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.69
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.47
1.10
Metz xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
8%
13.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.10 for Metz, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bordeaux come into this having played 30 games, going 4W 11D 15L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Metz sit at 0.77 PPG from 30 outings (4W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Bordeaux against 0.77 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bordeaux's home form reads 2W 5D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Metz have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bordeaux are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 0.90 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Current Season
Metz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Metz in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 4W 11D 15L in their last 30 games (0.77 PPG), while Metz have gone 4W 11D 15L in their last 30 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Metz away?
Metz's away record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.73 PPG; Metz away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Metz won 3-0 on 15 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bordeaux have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bordeaux
1
Draws
1
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Metz?
From 4 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 2, Metz have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Metz 3-0 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Metz?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 73%, Metz 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bordeaux) and 47% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Metz in 33%; Bordeaux have failed to score in 27% of games; Metz in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Bordeaux's games and 40% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bordeaux's recent games and 47% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Metz tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Metz in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bordeaux cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Metz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Metz 3-1 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.38 xG and Metz 1.10 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bordeaux beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.89 / defence 1.50 against Metz attack 0.61 / defence 1.37, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 43% | Draw 27% | Metz 30%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 63%, Metz 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 0.77 PPG, Metz 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.