Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 27 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Stade Brestois 29 have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stade Brestois 29 away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Auxerre, 1.40 for Stade Brestois 29 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Auxerre lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Stade Brestois 29 half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 56% versus Stade Brestois 29 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 54% | Stade Brestois 29 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.40 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.793 / defence 1.226 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.001 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.313. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Auxerre games / 39 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 31% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 40%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Stade Brestois 29 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Brestois 29 at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 40% | Stade Brestois 29 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 31% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Auxerre 1.40 / Stade Brestois 29 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.793 / def 1.226 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.001 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Stade Brestois 29 xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Auxerre 3 - 0 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 31% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (2 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Stade Brestois 29 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.79) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (1.00x) against Auxerre's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
31%
3.27
30%
3.37
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.01
1.61
Stade Brestois 29 xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
6%
16.41
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.61 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre's recent record stands at 21W 9D 9L from 39 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 10L across 39 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for Auxerre against 1.72 for Stade Brestois 29. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 13W 4D 2L from 19 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Auxerre are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 9W 3D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.56 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Stade Brestois 29 in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Stade Brestois 29
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 21W 9D 9L in their last 39 games (1.85 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 19W 10D 10L in their last 39 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Auxerre's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.26 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
2
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 53%, Stade Brestois 29 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Auxerre) and 47% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Stade Brestois 29 in 32%; Stade Brestois 29 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Stade Brestois 29?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Auxerre's recent matches and 42% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Auxerre's recent games and 47% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stade Brestois 29.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Stade Brestois 29 3-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.40 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.61 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stade Brestois 29 landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.79 / defence 1.23 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 31% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 40%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 54%, Stade Brestois 29 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.85 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.