Auxerre 2-3 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Monaco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Monaco travel to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 December 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Monaco have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monaco — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Auxerre register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Monaco in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Monaco in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Auxerre 64% and Monaco 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 53% | Monaco 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.93 xG and Monaco 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.766 / defence 1.053 | Monaco attack 1.222 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.337. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Monaco have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Auxerre games / 53 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 19% | Draw 25% | Monaco 55%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | Monaco 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 60% | Monaco 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Dec 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 19% | Draw 25% | Monaco 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Auxerre 0.93 / Monaco 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.766 / def 1.053 | Monaco attack 1.222 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Monaco (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Monaco xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Monaco kick off?
Auxerre vs Monaco kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Monaco?
Auxerre 2 - 3 Monaco.
Where is Auxerre vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Monaco part of?
Auxerre vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 19% chance of winning, Monaco a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Auxerre and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Monaco?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Monaco in?
Auxerre (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Monaco (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.77x the league average against Monaco's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
19%
5.15
25%
3.93
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.66
1.72
Monaco xG
5.15
19%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
3%
28.81
22%
4.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.72 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Monaco?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre come into this having played 53 games, going 22W 17D 14L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monaco sit at 1.81 PPG from 53 outings (28W 12D 13L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.57 PPG, Monaco on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Auxerre's home form reads 12W 8D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Monaco have taken 1.73 points per game from 26 outings (13W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.77 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Monaco in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 22W 17D 14L in their last 53 games (1.57 PPG), while Monaco have gone 28W 12D 13L in their last 53 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.69 PPG; Monaco away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Monaco in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Monaco won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
5
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Monaco?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 0, Monaco have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Monaco 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 62%, Monaco 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 50% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Monaco in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Auxerre's games and 54% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 50% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Monaco tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Monaco in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Auxerre 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Auxerre 2-3 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.93 xG and Monaco 1.72 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monaco outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against Monaco attack 1.22 / defence 0.84, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 19% | Draw 25% | Monaco 55%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 53%, Monaco 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.57 PPG, Monaco 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.