Auxerre 1-3 Angers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Auxerre at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Auxerre welcome Angers to Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Angers stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Angers have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Auxerre, 2 for Angers and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Angers in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 43% versus Angers 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Auxerre 46% | Angers 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.51 xG and Angers 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.975 / defence 0.930 | Angers attack 0.902 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.301. Data: 35 Auxerre games / 35 Angers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 45% | Draw 29% | Angers 26%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Angers 3.85. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 40% | Angers 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 45% | Draw 29% | Angers 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Auxerre 1.51 / Angers 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.975 / def 0.930 | Angers attack 0.902 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Angers xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Angers kick off?
Auxerre vs Angers kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Auxerre 1 - 3 Angers.
Where is Auxerre vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Angers part of?
Auxerre vs Angers is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 45% chance of winning, Angers a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Auxerre and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Angers?
Record (8 meetings): Auxerre 3W | Draws 3 | Angers 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Angers in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Angers (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.97) and Angers's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.47
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.60
1.09
Angers xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
6%
17.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.09 for Angers, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 35 games, going 8W 10D 17L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.03 PPG from 35 outings (9W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 0.97 PPG, Angers on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 6W 4D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 0.76 points per game from 17 outings (3W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 0.83 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Angers
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Angers in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 8W 10D 17L in their last 35 games (0.97 PPG), while Angers have gone 9W 9D 17L in their last 35 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Angers away?
Auxerre's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.29 PPG; Angers away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Angers runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Auxerre's record when hosting Angers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Auxerre
3
Draws
3
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Angers?
From 9 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 3, Angers have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Auxerre 1-3 Angers.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 35%, Angers 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Auxerre) and 35% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 47% of games; Angers in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Auxerre's recent matches and 41% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Auxerre's recent games and 35% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Angers tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Angers in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Auxerre 1-3 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.51 xG and Angers 1.09 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Angers outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Angers attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 45% | Draw 29% | Angers 26%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 46%, Angers 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Angers's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 0.97 PPG, Angers 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Angers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.