Auxerre 3-1 Angers – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Auxerre at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Angers encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Auxerre welcome Angers to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1 (matchday 32). Kick-off is Sunday 3 May 2026 at 17:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Auxerre have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Auxerre's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Angers stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, Angers have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Auxerre carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Auxerre's 20% BTTS rate and Angers's 30% (from Auxerre's last 10 home games and Angers's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Auxerre, 2 for Angers and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Auxerre 0–2 Angers — a Angers win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Auxerre in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Angers in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 48% versus Angers 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Angers 31%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.18 xG and Angers 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.729 / defence 0.799 | Angers attack 0.715 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.299. Auxerre's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Angers's attack rating of 0.715 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Auxerre have a tight defence (rating 0.799), which is pulling Angers's projected output down. Data: built from Auxerre's last 65 games and Angers's last 65.

Result probabilities: Auxerre 44% | Draw 34% | Angers 21%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.25 | Draw 2.90 | Angers 4.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Auxerre's last 10 home games and Angers's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 20% (last 10 home games) | Angers 30% (last 10 away games).

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