Angers 1-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Angers face Nantes.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nantes make the trip to Stade Raymond Kopa to face Angers in Ligue 1 (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Angers's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Angers have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nantes have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Nantes have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Angers against 1.20 for Nantes. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Angers, 2 for Nantes and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Jun 2023, ended Angers 0–1 Nantes — a Nantes win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Angers — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Nantes — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 47% versus Nantes 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 45% | Nantes 47%). Note also that Nantes surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Angers recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 0.93 xG and Nantes 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.711 / defence 1.394 | Nantes attack 0.964 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.326. Angers's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Angers's defence rating of 1.394 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nantes's projected output up. Data: built from Angers's last 4 games and Nantes's last 38.
Result probabilities: Angers 17% | Draw 28% | Nantes 55%. Fair-value odds: Angers 5.88 | Draw 3.56 | Nantes 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Nantes (55%) — a 27pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nantes are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Angers 70% (last 10 home games) | Nantes 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 5 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 17% | Draw 28% | Nantes 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Angers 0.93 / Nantes 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.711 / def 1.394 | Nantes attack 0.964 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Nantes (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Nantes xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Nantes FAQs
What time does Angers vs Nantes kick off?
Angers vs Nantes kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Nantes?
Angers 1 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Angers vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Nantes part of?
Angers vs Nantes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 5) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 17% chance of winning, Nantes a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Angers and Nantes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Angers vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Angers's attack rating (0.71) and Nantes's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.96x) against Angers's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 4 games and Nantes's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
17%
5.88
28%
3.56
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Angers xG
Total xG
2.71
1.78
Nantes xG
5.88
17%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
17%
5.94
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
3%
34.88
22%
4.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.8 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Nantes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Angers and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Angers and 1.78 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Nantes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers's recent record stands at 19W 7D 12L from 38 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 20L across 38 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Angers by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Angers have managed 13W 2D 4L from their last 19 home games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Angers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nantes's away record stands at 7W 4D 8L across their last 19 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 0.95 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Early Season
Nantes
Early Season
Angers (Home) vs Nantes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Early Season
Nantes
Early Season
❓ Angers vs Nantes Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Nantes in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 19W 7D 12L in their last 38 games (1.68 PPG), while Nantes have gone 11W 7D 20L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Nantes away?
Angers's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 2.16 PPG; Nantes away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Angers or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Nantes in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Angers and Nantes, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Angers have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nantes won Angers 1-4 Nantes on 19 Sep 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Angers
3
Draws
2
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Nantes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Nantes?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 3, Nantes have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Nantes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Nantes 0-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Nantes?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 42%, Nantes 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Angers) and 47% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Nantes in 32%; Nantes in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Nantes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Nantes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Angers's recent matches and 42% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Angers and Nantes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Angers's recent games and 47% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Nantes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Angers's recent matches and 53% of Nantes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers and Nantes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers and Nantes finished level at 1-1 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 0.93 xG and Nantes 1.78 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.71 / defence 1.39 against Nantes attack 0.96 / defence 0.81, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 17% | Draw 28% | Nantes 55%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 45%, Nantes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantes's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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