Angers 0-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Raymond Kopa plays host to Angers versus Lille in Ligue 1 (matchday 31). Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Angers's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Angers's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lille have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Lille have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Lille are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Angers, 2 for Lille and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Angers 0–2 Lille — a Lille win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Angers half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 44% versus Lille 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 41% | Lille 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 0.90 xG and Lille 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.656 / defence 1.261 | Lille attack 0.913 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.420. Angers's attack rating of 0.656 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Angers's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lille's projected output up. Data: built from Angers's last 30 games and Lille's last 64.
Result probabilities: Angers 21% | Draw 25% | Lille 55%. Fair-value odds: Angers 4.84 | Draw 4.06 | Lille 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Lille (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Angers 20% (last 10 home games) | Lille 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 21% | Draw 25% | Lille 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Angers 0.90 / Lille 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.656 / def 1.261 | Lille attack 0.913 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Lille (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Lille xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Lille FAQs
What time does Angers vs Lille kick off?
Angers vs Lille kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Lille?
Angers 0 - 2 Lille.
Where is Angers vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Lille part of?
Angers vs Lille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 21% chance of winning, Lille a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Angers and Lille will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Angers vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Angers's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.91x) against Angers's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 30 games and Lille's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
21%
4.84
25%
4.06
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Angers xG
Total xG
2.54
1.64
Lille xG
4.84
21%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
4%
24.84
22%
4.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.9 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Lille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Angers and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Angers and 1.64 for Lille, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Lille?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers come into this having played 64 games, going 27W 12D 25L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.75 PPG from 64 outings (31W 19D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Angers against 1.75 for Lille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Angers's home form reads 17W 4D 11L across their last 32 home games, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 32 away games (10W 12D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.55 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
Angers (Home) vs Lille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Angers vs Lille Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Lille in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 27W 12D 25L in their last 64 games (1.45 PPG), while Lille have gone 31W 19D 14L in their last 64 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Lille away?
Angers's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.72 PPG; Lille away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Angers or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lille in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Angers and Lille, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Lille have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Angers
2
Draws
6
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Lille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Lille?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 1, Lille have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Lille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Angers 0-2 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 41%, Lille 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Angers) and 44% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Lille in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Lille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Lille matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Angers's recent matches and 53% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Angers and Lille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Angers's recent games and 44% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Lille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Angers's recent matches and 66% of Lille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Angers 0-2 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 0.90 xG and Lille 1.64 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Angers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.66 / defence 1.26 against Lille attack 0.91 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 21% | Draw 25% | Lille 55%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 41%, Lille 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lille's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.45 PPG, Lille 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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