VPS 0-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as VPS take on KuPS.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VPS host KuPS at Lemonsoft Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 June 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VPS — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
VPS's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Lemonsoft Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lemonsoft Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, KuPS stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VPS at 2.20 PPG versus KuPS's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
KuPS trading profile (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 55% versus KuPS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 68% | KuPS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 0.57 xG and KuPS 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.701 / defence 0.963 | KuPS attack 0.954 / defence 0.643. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.044. VPS's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 0.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. KuPS's defence strength of 0.643 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 VPS games / 34 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 18% | Draw 41% | KuPS 41%. Fair-value odds: VPS 5.56 | Draw 2.44 | KuPS 2.44. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.53. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.53 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — VPS's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 18% and away win at 41% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.53 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VPS 50% | KuPS 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 18% | Draw 41% | KuPS 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 30% | xG VPS 0.57 / KuPS 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.701 / def 0.963 | KuPS attack 0.954 / def 0.643 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.57
VPS xG
Expected Goals
0.96
KuPS xG
30%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs KuPS kick off?
VPS vs KuPS kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs KuPS?
VPS 0 - 2 KuPS.
Where is VPS vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs KuPS part of?
VPS vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 18% chance of winning, KuPS a 41% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in VPS vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both VPS and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and KuPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VPS and KuPS in?
VPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. KuPS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VPS's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.57. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (19.2%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
18%
5.49
41%
2.43
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
20.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.57
VPS xG
Total xG
1.53
0.96
KuPS xG
5.49
18%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.36
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
56%
1.77
Win to Nil
7%
14.33
23%
4.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.7 | 20.8 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.2%.
How many goals are VPS and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.57 expected goals for VPS and 0.96 for KuPS, a combined total of 1.53.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VPS's recent record stands at 13W 5D 13L from 31 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 4L across 31 games — 2.03 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VPS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VPS have managed 3W 3D 8L from 14 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.42 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
KuPS's away record stands at 7W 3D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VPS are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.58 scored and 0.84 conceded. VPS's scoring rate against KuPS's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: KuPS in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and KuPS in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 13W 5D 13L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while KuPS have gone 18W 9D 4L in their last 31 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 0.86 PPG; KuPS away: 1.71 PPG.
Have VPS or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, KuPS in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
VPS's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VPS
2
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 3, KuPS have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VPS and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when KuPS 3-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between VPS and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 50%, KuPS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (VPS) and 50% (KuPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS in 36%; VPS have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of VPS's recent matches and 57% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of VPS's matches and 50% of KuPS's.
Do VPS and KuPS tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, KuPS in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat VPS 0-2 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 0.57 xG and KuPS 0.96 xG, a combined 1.53. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. KuPS outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.70 / defence 0.96 against KuPS attack 0.95 / defence 0.64, drawn from 32/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 18% | Draw 41% | KuPS 41%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 68%, KuPS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
KuPS's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. VPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. KuPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.