VPS 1-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VPS (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VPS face Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 10 as VPS welcome Ilves to Lemonsoft Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 June 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VPS — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
VPS's home record at Lemonsoft Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lemonsoft Stadion this season.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Ilves have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ilves have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
VPS carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for VPS, 1 for Ilves and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2023, ended 2–0 with VPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Ilves trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 44% versus Ilves 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 56% | Ilves 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.35 xG and Ilves 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.198 / defence 1.093 | Ilves attack 0.921 / defence 0.714. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.280. Ilves's defence strength of 0.714 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 VPS games / 32 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 35% | Draw 32% | Ilves 32%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Ilves 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VPS at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VPS 50% | Ilves 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jun 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 35% | Draw 32% | Ilves 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG VPS 1.35 / Ilves 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.198 / def 1.093 | Ilves attack 0.921 / def 0.714 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: VPS (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ilves xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Ilves kick off?
VPS vs Ilves kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 7 June 2024 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Ilves?
VPS 1 - 1 Ilves.
Where is VPS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Ilves part of?
VPS vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 35% chance of winning, Ilves a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both VPS and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Ilves?
Record (4 meetings): VPS 3W | Draws 0 | Ilves 1W.
What form are VPS and Ilves in?
VPS (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates VPS's attack at 1.20x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
35%
2.84
32%
3.09
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
VPS xG
Total xG
2.64
1.29
Ilves xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are VPS and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for VPS and 1.29 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VPS's recent record stands at 28W 8D 18L from 54 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 21L across 54 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours VPS by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ilves heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VPS have managed 11W 5D 10L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 8W 10D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
VPS are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.44 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Current Season
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Ilves in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 28W 8D 18L in their last 54 games (1.70 PPG), while Ilves have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Ilves away?
VPS's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.46 PPG; Ilves away: 1.31 PPG.
Have VPS or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ilves in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VPS and Ilves runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when VPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VPS
1
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 5, Ilves have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VPS 3-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Ilves?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 46%, Ilves 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (VPS) and 50% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Ilves in 31%; VPS have failed to score in 35% of games; Ilves in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of VPS's recent matches and 50% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of VPS's recent games and 50% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and Ilves tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ilves in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VPS and Ilves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS and Ilves finished level at 1-1 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.35 xG and Ilves 1.29 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.20 / defence 1.09 against Ilves attack 0.92 / defence 0.71, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 35% | Draw 32% | Ilves 32%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 56%, Ilves 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.