Turku PS 3-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Turku PS at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Turku PS vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Turku PS host Mariehamn at Veritas Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Turku PS — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Turku PS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Turku PS have posted 7W 1D 2L at Veritas Stadion — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Veritas Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Turku PS are significantly better at Veritas Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mariehamn stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Mariehamn have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Turku PS have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Turku PS, 0 for Mariehamn and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Turku PS trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Mariehamn trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Turku PS 53% versus Mariehamn 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Turku PS 53% | Mariehamn 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Turku PS 2.07 xG and Mariehamn 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Turku PS attack 0.996 / defence 1.064 | Mariehamn attack 0.765 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.171. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Turku PS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Turku PS games / 39 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Turku PS 62% | Draw 23% | Mariehamn 15%. Fair-value odds: Turku PS 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Mariehamn 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Turku PS (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Turku PS as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Turku PS 50% | Mariehamn 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Turku PS vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Veritas Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Turku PS 62% | Draw 23% | Mariehamn 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Turku PS 2.07 / Mariehamn 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Turku PS attack 0.996 / def 1.064 | Mariehamn attack 0.765 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Turku PS (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Turku PS xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Mariehamn xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Turku PS vs Mariehamn kick off?
Turku PS vs Mariehamn kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Veritas Stadion.
What was the final score in Turku PS vs Mariehamn?
Turku PS 3 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is Turku PS vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Veritas Stadion.
What competition is Turku PS vs Mariehamn part of?
Turku PS vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Turku PS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Turku PS a 62% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Turku PS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Turku PS vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Turku PS and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Turku PS vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Turku PS and Mariehamn?
Record (1 meetings): Turku PS 0W | Draws 1 | Mariehamn 0W.
What form are Turku PS and Mariehamn in?
Turku PS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Turku PS's attack rating (1.00) and Mariehamn's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Turku PS's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Turku PS Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.33
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Turku PS xG
Total xG
3.02
0.95
Mariehamn xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
13%
7.95
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
2%
52.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Turku PS vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Turku PS and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Turku PS and 0.95 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Turku PS vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Turku PS's recent record stands at 8W 4D 7L from 19 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Turku PS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 12L across 19 games — 0.47 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Turku PS by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Turku PS have managed 6W 1D 2L from 9 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Turku PS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 0W 2D 7L across 9 trips, a 0.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Turku PS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Turku PS are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.63 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Turku PS
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Turku PS and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Turku PS have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 1W 6D 12L in their last 19 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Turku PS at home or Mariehamn away?
Turku PS's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Turku PS at home: 2.11 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.22 PPG.
Have Turku PS or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Turku PS have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Turku PS
1
Draws
0
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Turku PS and Mariehamn?
From 2 meetings on record, Turku PS have won 1, Mariehamn have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Turku PS and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Turku PS 3-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Turku PS and Mariehamn?
Turku PS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Turku PS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Turku PS 56%, Mariehamn 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Turku PS) and 56% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Turku PS keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Mariehamn in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Turku PS home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Turku PS play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Turku PS's recent matches and 44% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Turku PS vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Turku PS's matches and 56% of Mariehamn's.
Do Turku PS and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Turku PS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Turku PS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Turku PS beat Mariehamn 3-0 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Turku PS 2.07 xG and Mariehamn 0.95 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Turku PS beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mariehamn landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Turku PS attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Mariehamn attack 0.77 / defence 1.39, drawn from 17/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Turku PS 62% | Draw 23% | Mariehamn 15%, with Turku PS to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Turku PS 53%, Mariehamn 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Turku PS's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mariehamn's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Turku PS arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Turku PS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.