SJK 5-5 Lahti – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs Lahti encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SJK welcome Lahti to OmaSP Stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 27 July 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SJK stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SJK's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lahti — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Lahti have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
SJK carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for SJK, 1 for Lahti and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2024, ended SJK 4–0 Lahti — a SJK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SJK trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Lahti trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 58% versus Lahti 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 56% | Lahti 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SJK surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Lahti have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.98 xG and Lahti 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.107 / defence 0.946 | Lahti attack 0.634 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.452. Lahti's attack rating of 0.634 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from SJK's last 38 games and Lahti's last 38.
Result probabilities: SJK 62% | Draw 24% | Lahti 14%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.61 | Draw 4.25 | Lahti 6.92. The model has a clear lean to SJK (62%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SJK at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SJK 70% (last 10 home games) | Lahti 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Lahti | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 17 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 July 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 62% | Draw 24% | Lahti 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG SJK 1.98 / Lahti 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.107 / def 0.946 | Lahti attack 0.634 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: SJK (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Lahti xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SJK vs Lahti FAQs
What time does SJK vs Lahti kick off?
SJK vs Lahti kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 27 July 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Lahti?
SJK 5 - 5 Lahti.
Where is SJK vs Lahti being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Lahti part of?
SJK vs Lahti is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 17) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Lahti?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 62% chance of winning, Lahti a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Lahti?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SJK and Lahti will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SJK vs Lahti have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SJK's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Lahti's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Lahti's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SJK's last 38 games and Lahti's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
62%
1.61
24%
4.25
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
SJK xG
Total xG
2.85
0.87
Lahti xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
2%
50.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SJK vs Lahti Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Lahti?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are SJK and Lahti expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for SJK and 0.87 for Lahti, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Lahti?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SJK's recent record stands at 20W 11D 12L from 43 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Lahti, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 21L across 43 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SJK by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lahti heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SJK have managed 11W 3D 7L from their last 21 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lahti's away record stands at 2W 9D 10L across their last 21 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SJK are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lahti are on 0.93 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Lahti
Blended
SJK (Home) vs Lahti (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SJK
Blended
Lahti
Blended
❓ SJK vs Lahti Form FAQs
What form are SJK and Lahti in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 20W 11D 12L in their last 43 games (1.65 PPG), while Lahti have gone 8W 14D 21L in their last 43 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Lahti away?
SJK's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.71 PPG; Lahti away: 0.71 PPG.
Have SJK or Lahti been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lahti in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 May 2024, when SJK won Lahti 0-4 SJK.
SJK's record when hosting Lahti specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SJK
3
Draws
2
Lahti
Recent Meetings
❓ SJK vs Lahti H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Lahti?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SJK have won 5, Lahti have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Lahti last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: SJK 1-0 Lahti.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Lahti?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 71%, Lahti 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SJK) and 43% (Lahti).
On the defensive side: Lahti in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Lahti away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SJK vs Lahti Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SJK and Lahti matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of SJK's recent matches and 38% of Lahti's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SJK and Lahti matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of SJK's recent games and 43% of Lahti's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and Lahti matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of SJK's recent matches and 67% of Lahti's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK and Lahti share the spoils in a 5-5 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK and Lahti finished level at 5-5 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.98 xG and Lahti 0.87 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 5-5 for 10 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lahti outscored their 0.87 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.11 / defence 0.95 against Lahti attack 0.63 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 62% | Draw 24% | Lahti 14%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 56%, Lahti 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Lahti's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SJK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lahti (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.