Mariehamn 1-2 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs SJK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mariehamn and SJK meet at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's home record at Wiklöf Holding Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
SJK have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
SJK's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mariehamn lead 2W to 4W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 0–4 with SJK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Mariehamn half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
SJK half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 54% versus SJK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 57% | SJK 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.96 xG and SJK 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.800 / defence 1.125 | SJK attack 0.952 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.261. Data: 24 Mariehamn games / 24 SJK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 27% | Draw 28% | SJK 46%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | SJK 2.17. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Mariehamn 40% | SJK 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 27% | Draw 28% | SJK 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Mariehamn 0.96 / SJK 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.800 / def 1.125 | SJK attack 0.952 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: SJK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.35
SJK xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs SJK kick off?
Mariehamn vs SJK kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs SJK?
Mariehamn 1 - 2 SJK.
Where is Mariehamn vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs SJK part of?
Mariehamn vs SJK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 27% chance of winning, SJK a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mariehamn and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and SJK?
Record (6 meetings): Mariehamn 2W | Draws 0 | SJK 4W.
What form are Mariehamn and SJK in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. SJK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.80x the league average against SJK's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.95x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
27%
3.75
28%
3.63
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.31
1.35
SJK xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
7%
14.49
17%
5.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.4 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.35 for SJK, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mariehamn come into this having played 56 games, going 13W 13D 30L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SJK sit at 1.50 PPG from 56 outings (23W 15D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
SJK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mariehamn's home form reads 7W 8D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, SJK have taken 1.52 points per game from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.52 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
SJK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and SJK in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 13W 13D 30L in their last 56 games (0.93 PPG), while SJK have gone 23W 15D 18L in their last 56 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or SJK away?
SJK's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.07 PPG; SJK away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-4 on 21 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mariehamn
0
Draws
7
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 3, SJK have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Mariehamn 2-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 44%, SJK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Mariehamn) and 59% (SJK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 52% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Mariehamn's matches and 59% of SJK's.
Do Mariehamn and SJK tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SJK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Mariehamn 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Mariehamn 1-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.96 xG and SJK 1.35 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.80 / defence 1.12 against SJK attack 0.95 / defence 0.85, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 27% | Draw 28% | SJK 46%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 57%, SJK 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
SJK's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.