Mariehamn 0-4 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs SJK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mariehamn and SJK meet at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 July 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Mariehamn's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Mariehamn's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
SJK have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SJK's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SJK arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Mariehamn, 2 for SJK and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 May 2024, ended Mariehamn 2–0 SJK — a Mariehamn win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Mariehamn half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
SJK half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 56% versus SJK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 51% | SJK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.18 xG and SJK 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.778 / defence 1.065 | SJK attack 1.119 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.411. Mariehamn's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Data: built from Mariehamn's last 36 games and SJK's last 37.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 25% | Draw 28% | SJK 47%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 4.00 | Draw 3.64 | SJK 2.11. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mariehamn 50% (last 10 home games) | SJK 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 16 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 25% | Draw 28% | SJK 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Mariehamn 1.18 / SJK 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.778 / def 1.065 | SJK attack 1.119 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: SJK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.68
SJK xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mariehamn vs SJK FAQs
What time does Mariehamn vs SJK kick off?
Mariehamn vs SJK kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs SJK?
Mariehamn 0 - 4 SJK.
Where is Mariehamn vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs SJK part of?
Mariehamn vs SJK is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 16) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 25% chance of winning, SJK a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mariehamn and SJK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mariehamn vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.78x the league average against SJK's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SJK's attack (1.12x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from Mariehamn's last 36 games and SJK's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
25%
4.00
28%
3.64
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.86
1.68
SJK xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
5%
21.51
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mariehamn vs SJK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.68 for SJK, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mariehamn come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 12D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, SJK sit at 1.65 PPG from 43 outings (20W 11D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
SJK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mariehamn's home form reads 5W 6D 9L across their last 20 home games, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, SJK have taken 1.55 points per game from their last 20 away games (8W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.47 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK in 60%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
SJK
Blended
Mariehamn (Home) vs SJK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mariehamn
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Mariehamn vs SJK Form FAQs
What form are Mariehamn and SJK in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 10W 12D 21L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while SJK have gone 20W 11D 12L in their last 43 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or SJK away?
SJK's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.05 PPG; SJK away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Mariehamn and SJK, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won Mariehamn 0-4 SJK on 21 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mariehamn
0
Draws
7
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Mariehamn vs SJK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and SJK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mariehamn have won 3, SJK have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and SJK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: SJK 2-1 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 45%, SJK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mariehamn) and 45% (SJK).
On the defensive side: SJK in 35%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mariehamn vs SJK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mariehamn and SJK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 50% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mariehamn and SJK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mariehamn's recent games and 45% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and SJK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 65% of SJK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SJK run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Mariehamn 0-4 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.18 xG and SJK 1.68 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SJK outscored their 1.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against SJK attack 1.12 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 25% | Draw 28% | SJK 47%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 51%, SJK 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SJK's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SJK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.