Mariehamn 2-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 39%, yet in-form KuPS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mariehamn vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KuPS make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Mariehamn (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
KuPS's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
KuPS away from home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. KuPS are 1.00 PPG clear of Mariehamn over their recent games (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Mariehamn, 2 for KuPS and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 Jun 2023, ended Mariehamn 1–0 KuPS — a Mariehamn win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
KuPS — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 59% versus KuPS 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 52% | KuPS 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mariehamn surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while KuPS have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.84 xG and KuPS 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 1.034 / defence 1.084 | KuPS attack 1.022 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.882 / away 1.568. Data: built from Mariehamn's last 23 games and KuPS's last 23. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 39% | Draw 27% | KuPS 34%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.60 | Draw 3.66 | KuPS 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.74) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Form (Mariehamn's last 10 home games and KuPS's last 10 away games) suggests only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 69% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form KuPS (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Mariehamn 30% (last 10 home games) | KuPS 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Mariehamn 23 games, KuPS 23) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 2 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 39% | Draw 27% | KuPS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG Mariehamn 1.84 / KuPS 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 1.034 / def 1.084 | KuPS attack 1.022 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.882 / away 1.568 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.74
KuPS xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mariehamn vs KuPS FAQs
What time does Mariehamn vs KuPS kick off?
Mariehamn vs KuPS kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Mariehamn 2 - 2 KuPS.
Where is Mariehamn vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs KuPS part of?
Mariehamn vs KuPS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 2) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 39% chance of winning, KuPS a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Mariehamn and KuPS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mariehamn vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 1.03x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.02x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from Mariehamn's last 23 games and KuPS's last 23, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
39%
2.60
27%
3.66
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.58
1.74
KuPS xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
18%
5.68
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
7%
14.75
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mariehamn vs KuPS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.74 for KuPS, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 15W 13D 26L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
KuPS's form line: 33W 11D 10L from 54 games, 2.04 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.19 PPG from their last 26 home games (8W 7D 11L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 15W 6D 5L from their last 26 away games — 1.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.56 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
Mariehamn (Home) vs KuPS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mariehamn
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
❓ Mariehamn vs KuPS Form FAQs
What form are Mariehamn and KuPS in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while KuPS have gone 33W 11D 10L in their last 54 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.19 PPG; KuPS away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, KuPS in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Mariehamn and KuPS, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won KuPS 3-0 Mariehamn on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mariehamn
3
Draws
4
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Mariehamn vs KuPS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and KuPS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mariehamn have won 3, KuPS have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and KuPS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: KuPS 2-4 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 58%, KuPS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mariehamn) and 42% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 46%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mariehamn vs KuPS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mariehamn and KuPS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 46% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mariehamn and KuPS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mariehamn's recent games and 42% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and KuPS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 62% of KuPS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn and KuPS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn and KuPS finished level at 2-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.84 xG and KuPS 1.74 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against KuPS attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 39% | Draw 27% | KuPS 34%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 52%, KuPS 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KuPS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.