Mariehamn 1-5 Ilves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mariehamn have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 4W 4D 2L at Wiklöf Holding Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Mariehamn are significantly better at Wiklöf Holding Arena than their overall form suggests.
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ilves have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Mariehamn against 0.90 for Ilves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ilves in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 44% versus Ilves 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 44% | Ilves 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.59 xG and Ilves 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.951 / defence 0.830 | Ilves attack 0.868 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.387. Data: 40 Mariehamn games / 40 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 51% | Draw 25% | Ilves 24%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Ilves 4.17. Mariehamn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 70% | Ilves 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 51% | Draw 25% | Ilves 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Mariehamn 1.59 / Ilves 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.951 / def 0.830 | Ilves attack 0.868 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ilves xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Ilves kick off?
Mariehamn vs Ilves kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Mariehamn 1 - 5 Ilves.
Where is Mariehamn vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Ilves part of?
Mariehamn vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 51% chance of winning, Ilves a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mariehamn and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and Ilves in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Ilves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.95x the league average against Ilves's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.87x) against Mariehamn's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
51%
1.96
25%
3.97
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.59
1.00
Ilves xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
5%
20.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.00 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mariehamn come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 9D 23L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.24 PPG from 45 outings (16W 8D 21L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Mariehamn against 1.24 for Ilves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mariehamn's home form reads 7W 5D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 0.71 points per game from 21 outings (3W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ilves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mariehamn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mariehamn are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.16 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Ilves in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 13W 9D 23L in their last 45 games (1.07 PPG), while Ilves have gone 16W 8D 21L in their last 45 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Ilves away?
Mariehamn's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.24 PPG; Ilves away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 1-5 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
3
Draws
5
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 2, Ilves have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Mariehamn 2-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mariehamn see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 48%, Ilves 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Mariehamn) and 57% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 43% of games; Ilves in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 57% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Mariehamn's recent games and 57% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Ilves tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Ilves in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ilves run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Mariehamn 1-5 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.59 xG and Ilves 1.00 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Ilves outscored their 1.00 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against Ilves attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 51% | Draw 25% | Ilves 24%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Ilves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 44%, Ilves 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Ilves's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.07 PPG, Ilves 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.