KuPS 1-1 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs SJK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KuPS and SJK meet at Väre Areena in Veikkausliiga (Championship Round - 3). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
KuPS have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, KuPS have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SJK's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
SJK's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. KuPS's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of SJK's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 39% versus SJK 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 41% | SJK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.35 xG and SJK 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.060 / defence 0.692 | SJK attack 0.909 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.279. KuPS have a tight defence (rating 0.692), which is pulling SJK's projected output down. Data: built from KuPS's last 44 games and SJK's last 44.
Result probabilities: KuPS 49% | Draw 29% | SJK 22%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.02 | Draw 3.49 | SJK 4.56. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (KuPS's last 10 home games and SJK's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KuPS 10% (last 10 home games) | SJK 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 49% | Draw 29% | SJK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG KuPS 1.35 / SJK 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.060 / def 0.692 | SJK attack 0.909 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: KuPS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.80
SJK xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KuPS vs SJK FAQs
What time does KuPS vs SJK kick off?
KuPS vs SJK kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs SJK?
KuPS 1 - 1 SJK.
Where is KuPS vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs SJK part of?
KuPS vs SJK is a Veikkausliiga fixture (Championship Round - 3) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 49% chance of winning, SJK a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both KuPS and SJK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will KuPS vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KuPS's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.91x) against KuPS's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from KuPS's last 44 games and SJK's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
49%
2.02
29%
3.49
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.16
0.80
SJK xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
6%
17.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KuPS vs SJK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are KuPS and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for KuPS and 0.80 for SJK, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KuPS come into this having played 51 games, going 31W 10D 10L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, SJK sit at 1.37 PPG from 51 outings (20W 10D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of SJK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
KuPS's home form reads 16W 4D 5L across their last 25 home games, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, SJK have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 25 away games (7W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.24 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
SJK
Blended
KuPS (Home) vs SJK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KuPS
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ KuPS vs SJK Form FAQs
What form are KuPS and SJK in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 31W 10D 10L in their last 51 games (2.02 PPG), while SJK have gone 20W 10D 21L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or SJK away?
KuPS's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.08 PPG; SJK away: 1.04 PPG.
Have KuPS or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, SJK in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 18 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
KuPS
4
Draws
0
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ KuPS vs SJK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and SJK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, KuPS have won 6, SJK have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and SJK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 July 2026: SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and SJK?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 32% (KuPS) and 36% (SJK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (KuPS) and 32% (SJK).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; KuPS have failed to score in 28% of games; SJK in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KuPS vs SJK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KuPS and SJK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of KuPS's recent matches and 36% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KuPS and SJK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of KuPS's recent games and 32% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and SJK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of KuPS's recent matches and 60% of SJK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS and SJK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Väre Areena, Championship Round - 3, as KuPS and SJK drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.35 xG and SJK 0.80 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.06 / defence 0.69 against SJK attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 49% | Draw 29% | SJK 22%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 41%, SJK 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
SJK's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.