KuPS 1-0 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as KuPS take on Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Väre Areena plays host to KuPS versus Ilves in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 23 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KuPS have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Väre Areena this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena.
Ilves (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in KuPS's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 48% versus Ilves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 46% | Ilves 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.00 xG and Ilves 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 0.858 / defence 1.082 | Ilves attack 0.984 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.024. Data: 25 KuPS games / 24 Ilves games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: KuPS 29% | Draw 38% | Ilves 33%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Ilves 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KuPS 40% | Ilves 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 29% | Draw 38% | Ilves 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG KuPS 1.00 / Ilves 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 0.858 / def 1.082 | Ilves attack 0.984 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ilves xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Ilves kick off?
KuPS vs Ilves kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Ilves?
KuPS 1 - 0 Ilves.
Where is KuPS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Ilves part of?
KuPS vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 29% chance of winning, Ilves a 33% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both KuPS and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and Ilves in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Ilves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
KuPS's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.98x) against KuPS's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
The sample (25/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.49
38%
2.62
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.09
1.09
Ilves xG
3.49
29%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
10%
10.39
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are KuPS and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for KuPS and 1.09 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KuPS come into this having played 54 games, going 34W 13D 7L for 2.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.30 PPG from 54 outings (20W 10D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Ilves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
KuPS's home form reads 18W 8D 1L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.07 points per game from 27 outings (7W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KuPS are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.33 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Ilves in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 34W 13D 7L in their last 54 games (2.13 PPG), while Ilves have gone 20W 10D 24L in their last 54 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Ilves away?
KuPS's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.30 PPG; Ilves away: 1.07 PPG.
Have KuPS or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Ilves in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
KuPS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
1
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Ilves have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Ilves?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 44%, Ilves 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (KuPS) and 52% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Ilves in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of KuPS's recent matches and 56% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of KuPS's recent games and 52% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Ilves tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ilves in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KuPS defy the odds to beat Ilves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Ilves 1-0 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.00 xG and Ilves 1.09 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ilves landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 0.86 / defence 1.08 against Ilves attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 29% | Draw 38% | Ilves 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual KuPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 46%, Ilves 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.