KuPS 3-1 Gnistan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs Gnistan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Gnistan travel to Väre Areena to take on KuPS in Veikkausliiga (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 July 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, KuPS stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
KuPS's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — KuPS are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Gnistan — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Gnistan's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 4L across their last 8 road games (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
KuPS carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of KuPS's games and 62% of Gnistan's (from KuPS's last 10 home games and Gnistan's last 8 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for KuPS, 0 for Gnistan and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2024, ended KuPS 0–0 Gnistan — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
KuPS in-play and half-time data (last 16 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Gnistan in-play and half-time data (last 16 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KuPS 75% and Gnistan 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 62% | Gnistan 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 2.33 xG and Gnistan 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.230 / defence 0.875 | Gnistan attack 1.053 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.302. Gnistan's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing KuPS's projected output up. Data: built from KuPS's last 36 games and Gnistan's last 14.
Result probabilities: KuPS 61% | Draw 22% | Gnistan 17%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.63 | Draw 4.64 | Gnistan 5.83. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.33 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (KuPS's last 10 home games and Gnistan's last 8 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KuPS 60% (last 10 home games) | Gnistan 62% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Gnistan | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 14 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 July 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 61% | Draw 22% | Gnistan 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG KuPS 2.33 / Gnistan 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.230 / def 0.875 | Gnistan attack 1.053 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: KuPS (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Gnistan xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KuPS vs Gnistan FAQs
What time does KuPS vs Gnistan kick off?
KuPS vs Gnistan kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Gnistan?
KuPS 3 - 1 Gnistan.
Where is KuPS vs Gnistan being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Gnistan part of?
KuPS vs Gnistan is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 14) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Gnistan?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 61% chance of winning, Gnistan a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Gnistan?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both KuPS and Gnistan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KuPS vs Gnistan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from KuPS's attack rating (1.23) and Gnistan's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gnistan's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KuPS's last 36 games and Gnistan's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.64
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
KuPS xG
Total xG
3.53
1.20
Gnistan xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
10%
10.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
2%
59.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KuPS vs Gnistan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Gnistan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are KuPS and Gnistan expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for KuPS and 1.20 for Gnistan, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Gnistan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KuPS come into this having played 16 games, going 9W 4D 3L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Gnistan sit at 0.88 PPG from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Gnistan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
KuPS's home form reads 5W 0D 1L across their last 6 home games, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.94 PPG overall — KuPS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gnistan have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 6 away games (0W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KuPS are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Gnistan are on 1.12 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KuPS have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Gnistan
Blended
KuPS (Home) vs Gnistan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KuPS
Blended
Gnistan
Blended
❓ KuPS vs Gnistan Form FAQs
What form are KuPS and Gnistan in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 games (1.94 PPG), while Gnistan have gone 3W 5D 8L in their last 16 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Gnistan away?
KuPS's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.50 PPG; Gnistan away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 29 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Jul 2025, when KuPS won KuPS 6-2 Gnistan.
KuPS's record when hosting Gnistan specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
KuPS
4
Draws
0
Gnistan
Recent Meetings
❓ KuPS vs Gnistan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Gnistan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, KuPS have won 6, Gnistan have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Gnistan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2026: KuPS 1-1 Gnistan.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Gnistan?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — KuPS at 83%, Gnistan at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (KuPS) and 33% (Gnistan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gnistan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Gnistan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KuPS vs Gnistan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KuPS and Gnistan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of KuPS's games and 67% of Gnistan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KuPS and Gnistan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of KuPS's matches and 33% of Gnistan's.
Do KuPS and Gnistan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of KuPS's recent matches and 83% of Gnistan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gnistan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Gnistan 3-1 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 2.33 xG and Gnistan 1.20 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.23 / defence 0.88 against Gnistan attack 1.05 / defence 1.21, drawn from 36/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 61% | Draw 22% | Gnistan 17%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 62%, Gnistan 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (16 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Gnistan's trading profile (16 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gnistan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.