Ilves 3-2 VPS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates VPS at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Ilves welcome VPS to Ratinan Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ilves — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves at Ratinan Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ratinan Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.15 xG and VPS 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.007 / defence 1.007 | VPS attack 1.306 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.452. VPS have an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Ilves games / 3 VPS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ilves 23% | Draw 22% | VPS 55%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | VPS 1.82. The model has a clear lean to VPS (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VPS at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 23% | Draw 22% | VPS 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Ilves 1.15 / VPS 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.007 / def 1.007 | VPS attack 1.306 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: VPS (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.91
VPS xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs VPS kick off?
Ilves vs VPS kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs VPS?
Ilves 3 - 2 VPS.
Where is Ilves vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs VPS part of?
Ilves vs VPS is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 23% chance of winning, VPS a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ilves and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and VPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ilves and VPS in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Ilves home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ilves's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against VPS's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (25/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
23%
4.39
22%
4.50
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.06
1.91
VPS xG
4.39
23%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
15%
6.75
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
3%
29.66
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Ilves and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Ilves and 1.91 for VPS, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs VPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Pre-Season
VPS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when VPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ilves's record when hosting VPS specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, VPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VPS 3-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Ilves defy the odds to beat VPS 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat VPS 3-2 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.15 xG and VPS 1.91 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against VPS attack 1.31 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 23% | Draw 22% | VPS 55%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Ilves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.