Haka 2-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Championship Round - 2 as Haka welcome SJK to Tehtaan kenttä. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka at Tehtaan kenttä this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SJK stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haka at 2.20 PPG versus SJK's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Haka in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
SJK in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 48% versus SJK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 50% | SJK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.65 xG and SJK 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.184 / defence 1.066 | SJK attack 0.717 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. Data: 44 Haka games / 44 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 49% | Draw 26% | SJK 25%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | SJK 4.00. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 80% | SJK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 49% | Draw 26% | SJK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Haka 1.65 / SJK 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.184 / def 1.066 | SJK attack 0.717 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Haka (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.11
SJK xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs SJK kick off?
Haka vs SJK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs SJK?
Haka 2 - 0 SJK.
Where is Haka vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs SJK part of?
Haka vs SJK is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 49% chance of winning, SJK a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Haka and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haka and SJK in?
Haka (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. SJK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haka's attack at 1.18x the league average against SJK's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.81
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Haka xG
Total xG
2.76
1.11
SJK xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
5%
21.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Haka and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Haka and 1.11 for SJK, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Haka have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 22W 9D 19L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 24W 9D 17L from 50 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.50 PPG, SJK on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haka have posted 1.56 PPG from 25 outings (11W 6D 8L).
On the road, SJK have gone 9W 3D 13L from 25 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SJK's season.
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.54 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and SJK in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 22W 9D 19L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while SJK have gone 24W 9D 17L in their last 50 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or SJK away?
Haka's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.56 PPG; SJK away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haka and SJK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when SJK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting SJK specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haka
2
Draws
5
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, SJK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Haka 2-3 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Haka and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 56%, SJK 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Haka) and 40% (SJK).
On the defensive side: Haka have failed to score in 28% of games; SJK in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Haka's recent matches and 36% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haka vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Haka's recent games and 40% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and SJK tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, SJK in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SJK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat SJK 2-0 at Tehtaan kenttä, Championship Round - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.65 xG and SJK 1.11 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SJK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.18 / defence 1.07 against SJK attack 0.72 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 49% | Draw 26% | SJK 25%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 50%, SJK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
SJK's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.50 PPG, SJK 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.