Haka 1-1 SJK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Haka at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Haka welcome SJK to Tehtaan kenttä. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 17 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka at Tehtaan kenttä this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tehtaan kenttä. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tehtaan kenttä this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SJK stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haka at 2.00 PPG versus SJK's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Haka in-play and half-time data (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
SJK in-play and half-time data (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 33% versus SJK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 37% | SJK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.61 xG and SJK 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.916 / defence 0.965 | SJK attack 0.801 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.314. SJK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Haka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Haka games / 29 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 51% | Draw 25% | SJK 24%. Fair-value odds: Haka 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | SJK 4.17. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Haka 20% | SJK 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 51% | Draw 25% | SJK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Haka 1.61 / SJK 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.916 / def 0.965 | SJK attack 0.801 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Haka (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.02
SJK xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs SJK kick off?
Haka vs SJK kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs SJK?
Haka 1 - 1 SJK.
Where is Haka vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs SJK part of?
Haka vs SJK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 51% chance of winning, SJK a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Haka and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haka and SJK in?
Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haka's attack at 0.92x the league average against SJK's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.02
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Haka xG
Total xG
2.63
1.02
SJK xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
21.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Haka and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Haka and 1.02 for SJK, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Haka have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 10W 5D 12L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 14W 6D 7L from 27 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haka.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haka have posted 1.14 PPG from 14 outings (4W 4D 6L).
On the road, SJK have gone 7W 2D 5L from 14 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.67 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Haka have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and SJK in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 10W 5D 12L in their last 27 games (1.30 PPG), while SJK have gone 14W 6D 7L in their last 27 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or SJK away?
SJK's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.14 PPG; SJK away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Haka or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, SJK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haka and SJK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when SJK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting SJK specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haka
2
Draws
5
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, SJK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Haka 2-3 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Haka and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Haka 36% BTTS, SJK 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Haka) and 43% (SJK).
On the defensive side: Haka keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SJK in 43%; Haka have failed to score in 36% of games; SJK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Haka's recent matches and 29% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haka vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Haka's recent games and 43% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and SJK tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, SJK in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka and SJK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 8, as Haka and SJK drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.61 xG and SJK 1.02 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against SJK attack 0.80 / defence 1.28, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 51% | Draw 25% | SJK 24%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 37%, SJK 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
SJK's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.