Haka 2-0 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs Kooteepee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kooteepee make the trip to Tehtaan kenttä to face Haka in Veikkausliiga (Relegation Round - 4). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Haka have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Haka's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 8D 0L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kooteepee (all games): 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Haka. A 1.30 PPG lead over Kooteepee (1.60 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Haka, 1 for Kooteepee and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Aug 2023, ended Haka 2–1 Kooteepee — a Haka win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Kooteepee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 68% versus Kooteepee 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 60% | Kooteepee 48%). Note also that Kooteepee surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Haka recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.69 xG and Kooteepee 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.078 / defence 0.973 | Kooteepee attack 0.798 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.279. Kooteepee's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Haka's last 44 games and Kooteepee's last 22.
Result probabilities: Haka 53% | Draw 25% | Kooteepee 22%. Fair-value odds: Haka 1.87 | Draw 4.05 | Kooteepee 4.56. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haka if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haka 80% (last 10 home games) | Kooteepee 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 53% | Draw 25% | Kooteepee 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Haka 1.69 / Kooteepee 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.078 / def 0.973 | Kooteepee attack 0.798 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Haka (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Haka xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Kooteepee xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haka vs Kooteepee FAQs
What time does Haka vs Kooteepee kick off?
Haka vs Kooteepee kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Kooteepee?
Haka 2 - 0 Kooteepee.
Where is Haka vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Kooteepee part of?
Haka vs Kooteepee is a Veikkausliiga fixture (Relegation Round - 4) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 53% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Haka and Kooteepee will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haka vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Haka's attack rating (1.08) and Kooteepee's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kooteepee's attack (0.80x) against Haka's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Haka's last 44 games and Kooteepee's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.05
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Haka xG
Total xG
2.68
0.99
Kooteepee xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
24.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haka vs Kooteepee Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Haka and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Haka and 0.99 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haka come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 10D 9L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Kooteepee sit at 0.80 PPG from 25 outings (5W 5D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Haka against 0.80 for Kooteepee. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Haka's home form reads 3W 10D 0L across their last 13 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Kooteepee have taken 0.62 points per game from their last 13 away games (2W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haka are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.84 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
Haka (Home) vs Kooteepee (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haka
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ Haka vs Kooteepee Form FAQs
What form are Haka and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 6W 10D 9L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 5W 5D 15L in their last 25 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Kooteepee away?
Haka's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.46 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Haka and Kooteepee, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 18 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Kooteepee have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kooteepee won Haka 0-3 Kooteepee on 14 May 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haka have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
3
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Haka vs Kooteepee H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Kooteepee?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Haka have won 4, Kooteepee have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Kooteepee last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2025: Haka 1-2 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Kooteepee?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 80% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 85% for Haka, 46% for Kooteepee — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Haka) and 46% (Kooteepee).
On the defensive side: Kooteepee in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haka vs Kooteepee Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haka and Kooteepee matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Haka's games and 46% of Kooteepee's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haka and Kooteepee matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Haka's recent games and 46% of Kooteepee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Kooteepee matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Haka's recent matches and 77% of Kooteepee's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Kooteepee 2-0 at Tehtaan kenttä, Relegation Round - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.69 xG and Kooteepee 0.99 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kooteepee landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Kooteepee attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 53% | Draw 25% | Kooteepee 22%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 60%, Kooteepee 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Kooteepee's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.12 PPG, Kooteepee 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.