Gnistan 1-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KuPS at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gnistan face KuPS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
KuPS travel to Mustapekka Areena to take on Gnistan in Veikkausliiga (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gnistan stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Gnistan have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, KuPS have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
KuPS's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Gnistan) versus 2.20 (KuPS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Gnistan's games and 60% of KuPS's (from Gnistan's last 10 home games and KuPS's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Gnistan have won 0, KuPS 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jul 2024, ended Gnistan 1–3 KuPS — a KuPS win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gnistan in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
KuPS in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gnistan 58% versus KuPS 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gnistan 61% | KuPS 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 1.37 xG and KuPS 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 1.002 / defence 0.970 | KuPS attack 0.966 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.587. Data: built from Gnistan's last 25 games and KuPS's last 26. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Gnistan 35% | Draw 25% | KuPS 40%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 2.86 | Draw 4.01 | KuPS 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gnistan 60% (last 10 home games) | KuPS 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Gnistan 25 games, KuPS 26) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 4 | Venue: Mustapekka Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 35% | Draw 25% | KuPS 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Gnistan 1.37 / KuPS 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 1.002 / def 0.970 | KuPS attack 0.966 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.587 • Poisson stance: KuPS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
1.49
KuPS xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gnistan vs KuPS FAQs
What time does Gnistan vs KuPS kick off?
Gnistan vs KuPS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Mustapekka Areena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs KuPS?
Gnistan 1 - 2 KuPS.
Where is Gnistan vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Mustapekka Areena.
What competition is Gnistan vs KuPS part of?
Gnistan vs KuPS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 4) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 35% chance of winning, KuPS a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Gnistan and KuPS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gnistan vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gnistan's attack rating (1.00) and KuPS's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus Gnistan's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gnistan's last 25 games and KuPS's last 26, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
35%
2.86
25%
4.01
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.86
1.49
KuPS xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
8%
12.66
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gnistan vs KuPS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Gnistan and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Gnistan and 1.49 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gnistan's recent record stands at 11W 9D 11L from 31 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 20W 6D 5L across 31 games — 2.13 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gnistan heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gnistan have managed 7W 4D 4L from their last 15 home games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 7W 5D 3L across their last 15 away games, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gnistan are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.71 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KuPS in 61%.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
Gnistan (Home) vs KuPS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gnistan
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
❓ Gnistan vs KuPS Form FAQs
What form are Gnistan and KuPS in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 11W 9D 11L in their last 31 games (1.35 PPG), while KuPS have gone 20W 6D 5L in their last 31 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gnistan at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gnistan at home: 1.67 PPG; KuPS away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 29 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Jul 2025, when KuPS won KuPS 6-2 Gnistan.
Gnistan's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Gnistan
4
Draws
6
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Gnistan vs KuPS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and KuPS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gnistan have won 0, KuPS have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and KuPS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2026: KuPS 1-1 Gnistan.
Who has won more matches between Gnistan and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gnistan 47%, KuPS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Gnistan) and 47% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: Gnistan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gnistan have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gnistan vs KuPS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gnistan and KuPS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gnistan's recent matches and 60% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gnistan and KuPS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Gnistan's recent games and 47% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gnistan and KuPS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Gnistan's recent matches and 73% of KuPS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out Gnistan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Gnistan 1-2 at Mustapekka Areena, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.37 xG and KuPS 1.49 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against KuPS attack 0.97 / defence 0.90, drawn from 25/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 35% | Draw 25% | KuPS 40%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 61%, KuPS 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gnistan's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. Gnistan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.