Gnistan 1-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ilves at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gnistan face Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gnistan host Ilves at Bolt Arena in Veikkausliiga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 1 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gnistan stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gnistan's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Ilves — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ilves's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gnistan 1.70 PPG, Ilves 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Gnistan, 0 for Ilves and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 10.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Gnistan 6–4 Ilves — a Gnistan win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 10.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gnistan in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Ilves in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gnistan 52% versus Ilves 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gnistan 61% | Ilves 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 1.11 xG and Ilves 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 0.836 / defence 1.050 | Ilves attack 1.032 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.248. Data: built from Gnistan's last 21 games and Ilves's last 43.
Result probabilities: Gnistan 31% | Draw 27% | Ilves 42%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 3.26 | Draw 3.70 | Ilves 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gnistan 40% (last 10 home games) | Ilves 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 22 | Venue: Bolt Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 31% | Draw 27% | Ilves 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Gnistan 1.11 / Ilves 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 0.836 / def 1.050 | Ilves attack 1.032 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Ilves (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Ilves xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gnistan vs Ilves FAQs
What time does Gnistan vs Ilves kick off?
Gnistan vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Bolt Arena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs Ilves?
Gnistan 1 - 1 Ilves.
Where is Gnistan vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Bolt Arena.
What competition is Gnistan vs Ilves part of?
Gnistan vs Ilves is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 22) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 31% chance of winning, Ilves a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gnistan and Ilves will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Gnistan vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gnistan's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Gnistan's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gnistan's last 21 games and Ilves's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
31%
3.26
27%
3.70
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.46
1.35
Ilves xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.61
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gnistan vs Ilves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gnistan and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Gnistan and 1.35 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gnistan's recent record stands at 8W 6D 9L from 23 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 5L across 23 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ilves by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gnistan heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gnistan have managed 5W 2D 4L from their last 11 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 5W 3D 3L across their last 11 away games, a 1.64 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Gnistan are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 2.26 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Blended
Ilves
Blended
Gnistan (Home) vs Ilves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gnistan
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Gnistan vs Ilves Form FAQs
What form are Gnistan and Ilves in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 8W 6D 9L in their last 23 games (1.30 PPG), while Ilves have gone 13W 5D 5L in their last 23 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gnistan at home or Ilves away?
Ilves's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gnistan at home: 1.55 PPG; Ilves away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Gnistan or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gnistan have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ilves in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 17 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gnistan's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gnistan
2
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Gnistan vs Ilves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Ilves?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Gnistan have won 2, Ilves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and Ilves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 August 2026: Gnistan 3-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Gnistan and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gnistan 36%, Ilves 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Gnistan) and 27% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Gnistan keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ilves in 36%; Gnistan have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gnistan vs Ilves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gnistan and Ilves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Gnistan's recent matches and 46% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gnistan and Ilves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Gnistan's recent games and 27% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gnistan and Ilves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Gnistan's recent matches and 64% of Ilves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gnistan and Ilves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan and Ilves finished level at 1-1 at Bolt Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.11 xG and Ilves 1.35 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Ilves attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 21/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 31% | Draw 27% | Ilves 42%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 61%, Ilves 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gnistan's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Ilves's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.