Gnistan 0-3 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gnistan vs Haka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haka make the trip to Mustapekka Areena to face Gnistan in Veikkausliiga (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Gnistan have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 2 games: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: D L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Haka's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haka's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Haka are 1.40 PPG clear of Gnistan over their recent games (1.90 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 1.19 xG and Haka 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 0.791 / defence 1.045 | Haka attack 0.948 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.334. Gnistan's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from Gnistan's last 4 games and Haka's last 26.
Result probabilities: Gnistan 30% | Draw 34% | Haka 36%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 3.36 | Draw 2.93 | Haka 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haka are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Gnistan's last 2 games and Haka's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 5 | Venue: Mustapekka Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 30% | Draw 34% | Haka 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Gnistan 1.19 / Haka 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 0.791 / def 1.045 | Haka attack 0.948 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Haka (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Haka xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gnistan vs Haka FAQs
What time does Gnistan vs Haka kick off?
Gnistan vs Haka kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Mustapekka Areena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs Haka?
Gnistan 0 - 3 Haka.
Where is Gnistan vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Mustapekka Areena.
What competition is Gnistan vs Haka part of?
Gnistan vs Haka is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 5) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 30% chance of winning, Haka a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Gnistan and Haka will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gnistan vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gnistan's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Haka's attack (0.95x) against Gnistan's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Gnistan's last 4 games and Haka's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
30%
3.36
34%
2.93
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.51
1.32
Haka xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.59
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gnistan vs Haka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gnistan and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Gnistan and 1.32 for Haka, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gnistan come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L.
On the other side, Haka sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D across their last five.
Haka carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Gnistan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gnistan are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gnistan have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gnistan have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Haka in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Early Season
Haka
Early Season
Gnistan (Home) vs Haka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gnistan
Early Season
Haka
Early Season
❓ Gnistan vs Haka Form FAQs
What form are Gnistan and Haka in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Haka have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Gnistan or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gnistan have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Haka in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 13 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haka won Gnistan 0-3 Haka on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gnistan have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Haka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Gnistan
1
Draws
2
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Gnistan vs Haka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Haka?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Gnistan have won 2, Haka have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gnistan and Haka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 July 2025: Gnistan 2-0 Haka.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gnistan vs Haka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gnistan and Haka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Gnistan's recent matches and 50% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gnistan and Haka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gnistan's recent games and 0% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gnistan and Haka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Gnistan's recent matches and 100% of Haka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Haka run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gnistan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Gnistan 0-3 at Mustapekka Areena, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.19 xG and Haka 1.32 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gnistan fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Haka outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.79 / defence 1.04 against Haka attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 4/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 30% | Draw 34% | Haka 36%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 50%, Haka 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Haka arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gnistan shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haka scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.