AC Oulu 0-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and SJK meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Monday 31 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
AC Oulu's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu at Raatin stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — AC Oulu are significantly better at Raatin stadion than their overall form suggests.
SJK (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SJK have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for AC Oulu against 0.90 for SJK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for AC Oulu, 4 for SJK and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 1–0 with AC Oulu winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AC Oulu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AC Oulu 52% and SJK 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 54% | SJK 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.42 xG and SJK 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.861 / defence 0.963 | SJK attack 0.868 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.200. Data: 43 AC Oulu games / 43 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 47% | Draw 27% | SJK 27%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | SJK 3.70. AC Oulu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 40% | SJK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 47% | Draw 27% | SJK 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG AC Oulu 1.42 / SJK 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.861 / def 0.963 | SJK attack 0.868 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.00
SJK xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs SJK kick off?
AC Oulu vs SJK kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 31 August 2026 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs SJK?
AC Oulu 0 - 0 SJK.
Where is AC Oulu vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs SJK part of?
AC Oulu vs SJK is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 47% chance of winning, SJK a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AC Oulu and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and SJK?
Record (9 meetings): AC Oulu 3W | Draws 2 | SJK 4W.
What form are AC Oulu and SJK in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. SJK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AC Oulu's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.87x) against AC Oulu's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.74
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.43
1.00
SJK xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.00 for SJK, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 18W 6D 24L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 17W 13D 18L from 48 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for AC Oulu against 1.33 for SJK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.43 PPG from 23 outings (10W 3D 10L).
On the road, SJK have gone 7W 7D 9L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AC Oulu are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.79 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK in 69%.
Last 48 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and SJK in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 18W 6D 24L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while SJK have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or SJK away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.43 PPG; SJK away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-3 on 29 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AC Oulu
3
Draws
4
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 3, SJK have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when AC Oulu 0-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AC Oulu see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 48%, SJK 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for AC Oulu and 78% for SJK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play SJK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of AC Oulu's games and 74% of SJK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AC Oulu vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of AC Oulu's matches and 78% of SJK's.
Do AC Oulu and SJK tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, SJK in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AC Oulu's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu and SJK finished level at 0-0 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.42 xG and SJK 1.00 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AC Oulu fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SJK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against SJK attack 0.87 / defence 1.17, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 47% | Draw 27% | SJK 27%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 54%, SJK 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SJK's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.25 PPG, SJK 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.