Wolves 0-2 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolves at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolves vs Crystal Palace encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wolves host Crystal Palace at Molineux Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wolves — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolves's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Molineux Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Crystal Palace have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Crystal Palace have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Wolves carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Wolves have won 0, Crystal Palace 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Crystal Palace winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Wolves in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Crystal Palace in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolves 31% versus Crystal Palace 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolves 27% | Crystal Palace 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolves 1.10 xG and Crystal Palace 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolves attack 0.805 / defence 0.866 | Crystal Palace attack 0.788 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.333. Crystal Palace bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Wolves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Wolves games / 27 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolves 40% | Draw 31% | Crystal Palace 30%. Fair-value odds: Wolves 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Crystal Palace 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolves are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wolves 40% | Crystal Palace 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolves vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Molineux Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolves 40% | Draw 31% | Crystal Palace 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Wolves 1.10 / Crystal Palace 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Wolves attack 0.805 / def 0.866 | Crystal Palace attack 0.788 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Wolves (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Wolves xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Crystal Palace xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolves vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Wolves vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Molineux Stadium.
What was the final score in Wolves vs Crystal Palace?
Wolves 0 - 2 Crystal Palace.
Where is Wolves vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Molineux Stadium.
What competition is Wolves vs Crystal Palace part of?
Wolves vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Wolves vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Wolves a 40% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolves vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Wolves and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Wolves vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Crystal Palace?
Record (1 meetings): Wolves 0W | Draws 0 | Crystal Palace 1W.
What form are Wolves and Crystal Palace in?
Wolves (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Crystal Palace (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolves's attack at 0.81x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Wolves's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.27
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Wolves xG
Total xG
2.01
0.91
Crystal Palace xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
10%
10.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolves vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Wolves and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Wolves and 0.91 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolves vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Wolves have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 12W 4D 10L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace's form line: 6W 12D 8L from 26 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolves on 1.54 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wolves have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L).
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 2W 6D 4L from 12 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolves are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.42 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolves
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolves and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Wolves have gone 12W 4D 10L in their last 26 games (1.54 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 6W 12D 8L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolves at home or Crystal Palace away?
Wolves's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolves at home: 1.42 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Wolves or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolves have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolves and Crystal Palace runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crystal Palace go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Wolves's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Wolves
1
Draws
8
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Crystal Palace?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolves have won 1, Crystal Palace have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wolves and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Crystal Palace 1-0 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between Wolves and Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolves 33%, Crystal Palace 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Wolves) and 50% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Wolves have failed to score in 58% of games; Crystal Palace in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolves home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolves play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Wolves's recent matches and 50% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolves vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Wolves's recent games and 50% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Crystal Palace cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wolves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Wolves 0-2 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.10 xG and Crystal Palace 0.91 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wolves fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Crystal Palace outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.81 / defence 0.87 against Crystal Palace attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolves 40% | Draw 31% | Crystal Palace 30%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Crystal Palace win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 27%, Crystal Palace 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolves's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolves 1.54 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.