Wolves 0-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolves at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolves vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Wolves welcome Burnley to Molineux Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wolves — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolves at Molineux Stadium this season: 3W 0D 3L from 6 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Molineux Stadium this season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley away from home this season: 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Wolves have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Wolves in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Burnley in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolves 33% versus Burnley 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wolves 25% | Burnley 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolves 1.19 xG and Burnley 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolves attack 0.809 / defence 1.018 | Burnley attack 0.825 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.304. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Wolves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Wolves games / 12 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolves 38% | Draw 29% | Burnley 33%. Fair-value odds: Wolves 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Burnley 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolves at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wolves 33% | Burnley 67%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolves vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Molineux Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolves 38% | Draw 29% | Burnley 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Wolves 1.19 / Burnley 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Wolves attack 0.809 / def 1.018 | Burnley attack 0.825 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Wolves (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Wolves xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Burnley xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolves vs Burnley kick off?
Wolves vs Burnley kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Molineux Stadium.
What was the final score in Wolves vs Burnley?
Wolves 0 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Wolves vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Molineux Stadium.
What competition is Wolves vs Burnley part of?
Wolves vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Wolves vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Wolves a 38% chance of winning, Burnley a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolves vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wolves and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Wolves vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolves and Burnley in?
Wolves (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Burnley (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolves's attack at 0.81x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Wolves's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
38%
2.65
29%
3.45
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Wolves xG
Total xG
2.28
1.09
Burnley xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
10%
9.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolves vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Wolves and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Wolves and 1.09 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolves vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolves's recent record stands at 6W 2D 4L from 12 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 5L across 12 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wolves by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wolves have managed 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.17 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolves
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolves and Burnley in coming into this match?
Wolves have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while Burnley have gone 1W 6D 5L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolves at home or Burnley away?
Wolves's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolves at home: 1.50 PPG; Burnley away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Wolves or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolves have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Burnley in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolves and Burnley runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wolves's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wolves
3
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Wolves have won 1, Burnley have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wolves and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Burnley 1-1 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between Wolves and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolves 33%, Burnley 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Wolves) and 50% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Wolves have failed to score in 50% of games; Burnley in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolves home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolves play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Wolves's recent matches and 67% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolves vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Wolves's recent games and 50% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Wolves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Wolves and Burnley drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.19 xG and Burnley 1.09 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wolves fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Burnley landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Burnley attack 0.82 / defence 1.29, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolves 38% | Draw 29% | Burnley 33%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 25%, Burnley 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolves's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolves arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.