West Ham 1-1 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Ham at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
London Stadium plays host to West Ham versus Newcastle in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 19 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Ham have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Ham have posted 5W 1D 4L at London Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Newcastle's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newcastle's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — West Ham have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Newcastle in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: West Ham 1W, Newcastle 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 4–2 with West Ham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 10 at home): BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Newcastle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 10 at away): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — West Ham 61% and Newcastle 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 56% | Newcastle 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.70 xG and Newcastle 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.101 / defence 1.245 | Newcastle attack 0.663 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.277. Newcastle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing West Ham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 West Ham games / 23 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 52% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 23%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Newcastle 4.35. West Ham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates West Ham as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Ham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: West Ham 70% | Newcastle 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 52% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG West Ham 1.70 / Newcastle 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.101 / def 1.245 | Newcastle attack 0.663 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: West Ham (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Newcastle xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Newcastle kick off?
West Ham vs Newcastle kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Newcastle?
West Ham 1 - 1 Newcastle.
Where is West Ham vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Newcastle part of?
West Ham vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 52% chance of winning, Newcastle a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both West Ham and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Newcastle?
Record (1 meetings): West Ham 1W | Draws 0 | Newcastle 0W.
What form are West Ham and Newcastle in?
West Ham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Newcastle (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates West Ham's attack at 1.10x the league average against Newcastle's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Newcastle's attack (0.66x) against West Ham's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 25/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.99
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.76
1.05
Newcastle xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
4%
23.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are West Ham and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for West Ham and 1.05 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 10W 5D 8L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Newcastle's form line: 4W 9D 10L from 23 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, West Ham are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Newcastle.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (5W 1D 4L).
On the road, Newcastle have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Ham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
West Ham are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.09 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Newcastle in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Newcastle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Newcastle in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 games (1.52 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 4W 9D 10L in their last 23 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Newcastle away?
West Ham's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.60 PPG; Newcastle away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 1-5 on 5 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Newcastle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
West Ham
3
Draws
4
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Newcastle?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 3, Newcastle have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Newcastle 3-1 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for West Ham, 60% for Newcastle — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (West Ham) and 40% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Newcastle in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Newcastle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of West Ham's games and 60% of Newcastle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of West Ham's recent games and 40% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
West Ham and Newcastle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at London Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as West Ham and Newcastle drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.70 xG and Newcastle 1.05 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.10 / defence 1.25 against Newcastle attack 0.66 / defence 1.37, drawn from 25/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 52% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 23%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 56%, Newcastle 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Newcastle's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, West Ham arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.