Tottenham 3-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Tottenham (60%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Tottenham face Crystal Palace.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Tottenham welcome Crystal Palace to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Tottenham have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Tottenham's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Crystal Palace stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Crystal Palace's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Tottenham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of Tottenham's games and 60% of Crystal Palace's (from Tottenham's last 10 home games and Crystal Palace's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Tottenham: 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Crystal Palace, with 0 draws.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Tottenham 2–1 Crystal Palace — a Tottenham win.

The head-to-head data gives Tottenham an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Patterns

Tottenham in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tottenham 70% and Crystal Palace 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 68% | Crystal Palace 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Tottenham surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Crystal Palace have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Crystal Palace surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Tottenham recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 2.25 xG and Crystal Palace 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.109 / defence 1.003 | Crystal Palace attack 0.781 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.557. Crystal Palace's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Data: built from Tottenham's last 63 games and Crystal Palace's last 64.

Result probabilities: Tottenham 60% | Draw 21% | Crystal Palace 19%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 1.66 | Draw 4.86 | Crystal Palace 5.19. The model has a clear lean to Tottenham (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.25 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tottenham at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Tottenham's last 10 home games and Crystal Palace's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tottenham 90% (last 10 home games) | Crystal Palace 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights