Nottingham Forest 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nottingham Forest face Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nottingham Forest host Burnley at The City Ground in Premier League (matchday 5). Kick-off is Monday 18 September 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Nottingham Forest — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Nottingham Forest have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burnley stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Burnley's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nottingham Forest 1.70 PPG, Burnley 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Burnley in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 52% versus Burnley 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 48% | Burnley 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nottingham Forest surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Burnley have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.88 xG and Burnley 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 1.031 / defence 0.967 | Burnley attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.395. Data: built from Nottingham Forest's last 42 games and Burnley's last 3.
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 55% | Draw 22% | Burnley 23%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 1.83 | Draw 4.45 | Burnley 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Nottingham Forest (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nottingham Forest at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nottingham Forest 70% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, matchday 5 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Monday 18 September 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 55% | Draw 22% | Burnley 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Nottingham Forest 1.88 / Burnley 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 1.031 / def 0.967 | Burnley attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Burnley xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Burnley kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 18 September 2023 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Burnley part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley is a Premier League fixture (matchday 5) (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 55% chance of winning, Burnley a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nottingham Forest vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nottingham Forest's attack at 1.03x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nottingham Forest's last 42 games and Burnley's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
55%
1.83
22%
4.45
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
3.03
1.15
Burnley xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
3%
28.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.15 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Nottingham Forest have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 11W 11D 20L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 26W 11D 5L from 42 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Burnley are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nottingham Forest.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nottingham Forest have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 20 home games (9W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Nottingham Forest are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Burnley have gone 11W 8D 1L from their last 20 away games — 2.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.83 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
Nottingham Forest (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Nottingham Forest and Burnley in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 11W 11D 20L in their last 42 games (1.05 PPG), while Burnley have gone 26W 11D 5L in their last 42 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Burnley away?
Burnley's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.65 PPG; Burnley away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Burnley in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Apr 2026, when Nottingham Forest won Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Burnley?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Burnley have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Burnley?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 60%, Burnley 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Nottingham Forest) and 45% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nottingham Forest and Burnley matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Nottingham Forest's games and 60% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Nottingham Forest and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 45% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 60% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nottingham Forest and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The City Ground, Regular Season - 5, as Nottingham Forest and Burnley drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.88 xG and Burnley 1.15 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Nottingham Forest fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Burnley attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 42/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 55% | Draw 22% | Burnley 23%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 48%, Burnley 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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