Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Liverpool host Nottingham Forest at Anfield in Premier League (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Liverpool — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Liverpool's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Liverpool are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Nottingham Forest have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Nottingham Forest have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Liverpool have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Liverpool's last 10 home games and Nottingham Forest's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Liverpool, 1 for Nottingham Forest and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended Liverpool 1–0 Nottingham Forest — a Liverpool win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Liverpool in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Liverpool 63% and Nottingham Forest 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 63% | Nottingham Forest 51%). Note also that Nottingham Forest surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Liverpool recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.71 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.189 / defence 0.779 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.879 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.521. Liverpool have a tight defence (rating 0.779), which is pulling Nottingham Forest's projected output down. Data: built from Liverpool's last 41 games and Nottingham Forest's last 41.
Result probabilities: Liverpool 50% | Draw 29% | Nottingham Forest 21%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.98 | Draw 3.45 | Nottingham Forest 4.86. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Liverpool's last 10 home games and Nottingham Forest's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Liverpool 70% (last 10 home games) | Nottingham Forest 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, matchday 4 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 50% | Draw 29% | Nottingham Forest 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Liverpool 1.71 / Nottingham Forest 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.189 / def 0.779 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.879 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Nottingham Forest xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest FAQs
What time does Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
Liverpool 0 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest is a Premier League fixture (matchday 4) (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 50% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Liverpool and Nottingham Forest will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Liverpool's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Nottingham Forest's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Liverpool's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Liverpool's last 41 games and Nottingham Forest's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
50%
1.98
29%
3.45
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.75
1.04
Nottingham Forest xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
4%
26.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.04 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Liverpool's recent record stands at 27W 10D 4L from 41 games, a 2.22 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 20L across 41 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Liverpool by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nottingham Forest heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Liverpool have managed 16W 3D 1L from their last 20 home games — 2.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nottingham Forest's away record stands at 5W 4D 11L across their last 20 away games, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Liverpool are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.27 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Nottingham Forest in 66%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Early Season
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
Liverpool (Home) vs Nottingham Forest (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Liverpool
Early Season
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
❓ Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Form FAQs
What form are Liverpool and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 27W 10D 4L in their last 41 games (2.22 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 10W 11D 20L in their last 41 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Liverpool's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.55 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Oct 2023, when Liverpool won Liverpool 3-0 Nottingham Forest.
Liverpool's record when hosting Nottingham Forest specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Liverpool
2
Draws
3
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Nottingham Forest?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Liverpool have won 4, Nottingham Forest have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Nottingham Forest?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 60%, Nottingham Forest 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Liverpool and 55% for Nottingham Forest. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Nottingham Forest in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Liverpool and Nottingham Forest matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Liverpool's games and 60% of Nottingham Forest's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Liverpool and Nottingham Forest matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Liverpool's matches and 55% of Nottingham Forest's.
Do Liverpool and Nottingham Forest matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Liverpool's recent matches and 85% of Nottingham Forest's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nottingham Forest defy the odds to beat Liverpool 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Liverpool 0-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.71 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.04 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Liverpool fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.19 / defence 0.78 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 50% | Draw 29% | Nottingham Forest 21%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Nottingham Forest win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 63%, Nottingham Forest 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Nottingham Forest winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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