Leicester 0-4 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brentford at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leicester vs Brentford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Brentford travel to King Power Stadium to take on Leicester in Premier League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Leicester stand at 1W 0D 9L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Leicester's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Brentford — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Brentford's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brentford are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Leicester, 1 for Brentford and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended Leicester 1–4 Brentford — a Brentford win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Leicester in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Brentford in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leicester 57% and Brentford 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Leicester 64% | Brentford 67%). Note also that Brentford surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Leicester recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 0.75 xG and Brentford 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.588 / defence 1.200 | Brentford attack 0.910 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.504. Leicester's attack rating of 0.588 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Leicester's last 25 games and Brentford's last 63.
Result probabilities: Leicester 16% | Draw 26% | Brentford 58%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 6.15 | Draw 3.89 | Brentford 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Brentford (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brentford as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Leicester 40% (last 10 home games) | Brentford 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 16% | Draw 26% | Brentford 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Leicester 0.75 / Brentford 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.588 / def 1.200 | Brentford attack 0.910 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.504 • Poisson stance: Brentford (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Brentford xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leicester vs Brentford FAQs
What time does Leicester vs Brentford kick off?
Leicester vs Brentford kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 21 February 2025 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Brentford?
Leicester 0 - 4 Brentford.
Where is Leicester vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Brentford part of?
Leicester vs Brentford is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 16% chance of winning, Brentford a 58% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Leicester and Brentford will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Leicester vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Leicester's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Brentford's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Leicester's last 25 games and Brentford's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
16%
6.15
26%
3.89
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.39
1.64
Brentford xG
6.15
16%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
3%
31.77
27%
3.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 15.0 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leicester vs Brentford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Leicester and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Leicester and 1.64 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Brentford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leicester's recent record stands at 28W 9D 26L from 63 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Brentford, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 30L across 63 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leicester on 1.48 PPG, Brentford on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 15W 4D 12L from their last 31 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brentford's away record stands at 8W 4D 19L across their last 31 away games, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leicester are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.57 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brentford in 67%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Brentford
Blended
Leicester (Home) vs Brentford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leicester
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Leicester vs Brentford Form FAQs
What form are Leicester and Brentford in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 28W 9D 26L in their last 63 games (1.48 PPG), while Brentford have gone 20W 13D 30L in their last 63 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Brentford away?
Leicester's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.58 PPG; Brentford away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brentford have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Feb 2025, when Brentford won Leicester 0-4 Brentford.
Leicester's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Leicester
2
Draws
2
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Leicester vs Brentford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Brentford?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Leicester have won 2, Brentford have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Brentford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2025: Leicester 0-4 Brentford.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 52%, Brentford 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Leicester) and 64% (Brentford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brentford in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leicester vs Brentford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leicester and Brentford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Leicester's recent matches and 58% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leicester and Brentford matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Leicester's matches and 64% of Brentford's.
Do Leicester and Brentford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Leicester's recent matches and 71% of Brentford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brentford run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Leicester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford beat Leicester 0-4 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 0.75 xG and Brentford 1.64 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Brentford outscored their 1.64 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.59 / defence 1.20 against Brentford attack 0.91 / defence 0.85, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 16% | Draw 26% | Brentford 58%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 64%, Brentford 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Brentford's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.48 PPG, Brentford 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brentford (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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