Leeds 1-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leeds at 47%, yet in-form Fulham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Leeds vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Fulham travel to Elland Road to take on Leeds. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leeds stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leeds's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Elland Road this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Leeds are significantly better at Elland Road than their overall form suggests.
Fulham — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fulham are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Fulham have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Leeds.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Fulham winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fulham have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Leeds trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Fulham trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 49% versus Fulham 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 54% | Fulham 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.82 xG and Fulham 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 1.151 / defence 1.103 | Fulham attack 0.962 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.240. Data: 21 Leeds games / 59 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 47% | Draw 28% | Fulham 25%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Fulham 4.00. Leeds hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Leeds as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fulham (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leeds offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leeds 80% | Fulham 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 47% | Draw 28% | Fulham 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Leeds 1.82 / Fulham 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 1.151 / def 1.103 | Fulham attack 0.962 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Leeds (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Fulham xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Fulham kick off?
Leeds vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Fulham?
Leeds 1 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Leeds vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Fulham part of?
Leeds vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 47% chance of winning, Fulham a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Leeds and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Fulham?
Record (3 meetings): Leeds 0W | Draws 0 | Fulham 3W.
What form are Leeds and Fulham in?
Leeds (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Fulham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Leeds's attack at 1.15x the league average against Fulham's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Leeds's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.63
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Leeds xG
Total xG
3.14
1.32
Fulham xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
4%
24.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Leeds and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Leeds and 1.32 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leeds come into this having played 59 games, going 30W 17D 12L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.44 PPG from 59 outings (24W 13D 22L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leeds on 1.81 PPG, Fulham on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Leeds's home form reads 20W 7D 2L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.31 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Leeds are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.34 points per game from 29 outings (11W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leeds are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.42 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham in 68%.
Defensively: Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Fulham in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 30W 17D 12L in their last 59 games (1.81 PPG), while Fulham have gone 24W 13D 22L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Fulham away?
Leeds's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 2.31 PPG; Fulham away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Leeds or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Fulham in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leeds and Fulham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Leeds's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Leeds
0
Draws
3
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Fulham?
From 4 meetings on record, Leeds have won 1, Fulham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Leeds 1-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 66% of the time.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 52%, Fulham 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Leeds) and 52% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leeds keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Leeds's games and 69% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leeds vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Leeds's matches and 52% of Fulham's.
Do Leeds and Fulham tend to score early?
Leeds have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fulham in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Leeds edge out Fulham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Fulham 1-0 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.82 xG and Fulham 1.32 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Leeds fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.15 / defence 1.10 against Fulham attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 47% | Draw 28% | Fulham 25%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 54%, Fulham 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fulham's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leeds 1.81 PPG, Fulham 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.